Bitcoin Rises 35% in 90 Days but Remains 29% Below Last Year: Which Buyers Are Still Underwater?
Bitcoin has surged 35% in three months, yet some buyers still need a 47% climb just to break even. Whether your position is profitable or underwater comes down entirely to one factor: when you bought.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has seen a notable increase of about 35% over the last 90 days. However, it still stands approximately 29% lower than its value a year ago. So whether Bitcoin buyers find themselves underwater—holding assets worth less than what they paid—largely depends on when they bought.
As of October 2, 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $85,975. That’s about 32% off its all-time high of $126,080. Buyers from July are in a profitable position, while those who entered the market in October 2025 are still searching for a break-even point.
Bitcoin Buyers From the Past 90 Days Are in Profit
Buyers who purchased Bitcoin in early July, when it was around $63,500, are up about 35%. Those who bought in early August are up roughly 33%, while early September buyers have gained a more modest 9%.
Even buyers from the past week are slightly ahead, as Bitcoin has risen about 2% in just seven days.
Bitcoin Buyers From January 2026 and Earlier Are Still Underwater
The picture changes for buyers who entered the market earlier this year. Bitcoin was priced around $88,900 at the start of 2026, meaning a January buyer is down about 3% and needs a similar increase to recoup their investment.
For buyers from a year ago, the situation is more challenging. Bitcoin was valued at about $120,500 in early October 2025, a loss of about 29%. They would need about a 40% increase to get their money back. For those who bought at the peak price of $126,080, they would need a climb of about 47% to break even.
These calculations assume single purchases on one specific day. Many investors buy in smaller increments over time, which spreads their average cost across several prices. Therefore, while recent market gains may not reflect the broader trend, they do benefit some buyers.
Strategy Holds a $9 Billion Paper Gain on Its Bitcoin
Corporate investors also reflect this divide. Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction) has 847,666 BTC, bought for around $63.95 billion, averaging roughly $75,400 per coin. With Bitcoin currently at $85,975, those coins are worth about $72.9 billion, giving the company a paper gain of about $9 billion, or 14%.
However, if Bitcoin’s price dropped about 12%, it would put Strategy’s average cost underwater. Additionally, every new purchase above the $75,400 average, like the 950 BTC bought at $79,670 in September, will raise that average.
Strive’s Latest Bitcoin Purchase Is Barely Above Water
Strive (NASDAQ:ASST) reveals how thin the margin can be. The company bought 1,107 BTC at an average price of $85,396 on September 28, and Bitcoin now trades just above that price. In contrast, an earlier purchase of 1,800 BTC at around $79,431 from August 31 shows a gain of about 8%.
Overall, Strive holds 27,462 BTC valued at approximately $2.4 billion. For companies like Strive, cost matters more because they often fund Bitcoin purchases through shares, convertible bonds, or preferred stock that incur interest or dividends. If the trading price falls below the purchase cost, it can limit their ability to raise funds on favorable terms, slowing further acquisitions.
Who Are the Bitcoin Buyers Still Underwater?
In summary, buyers from January 2026 and earlier find themselves underwater, while those who bought in the past 90 days are enjoying profits. Strategy maintains a 14% buffer on its average price, while Strive’s latest purchase is only slightly above its entry point. This rally has significantly benefited recent buyers compared to those who entered near the highs of 2025.
Looking ahead, if Bitcoin dips below $85,396—just 1% lower—Strive’s September 28 purchase would fall back underwater. A drop below $75,400 would also put Strategy’s average in the red. On the bright side, consistent ETF inflows following a $149 million outflow on September 30 could push Bitcoin back up to $88,900—3% higher—allowing January buyers to break even.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
