Cryptocurrency

Citi Raised Its Bitcoin Target to $113,000 While Forecasting Just $5 Billion of Inflows. What Has to Go Right?

By Sam Daodu
Published October 2, 2026, 6:00am ET · 3 min read

The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.

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A close-up photograph of a gold-colored Bitcoin physical coin standing upright on a reflective white surface. In the blurred background, a digital screen displays financial charts with green and red candlesticks, three wavy lines in green, purple, and yellow, and light grey vertical bars, indicating market activity.
A physical Bitcoin coin stands against a backdrop of fluctuating market charts, reflecting the current price and future investment considerations discussed in the article. © William Potter / Shutterstock.com

Citigroup (NYSE:C | C Price Prediction) raised its 12-month Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) price target to $113,000, up from $82,000. This prediction is based on the assumption of just $5 billion in new investments flowing into crypto funds over the year. As of October 2, Bitcoin was trading around $86,000, making Citi’s target about 31% higher than its current price.

In addition, Citi analyst Alex Saunders has raised the bank’s Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) target to $3,028, up from $2,240. So, what has to happen for Bitcoin to hit Citi’s $113,000 target?

Citi Needs Only $5 Billion of Fund Inflows for Bitcoin to Reach $113,000

mattbuck / Wikimedia Commons

The $5 billion in inflows refers to the amount of new money that investors are expected to place into funds that hold cryptocurrencies, including spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which hold the assets and trade like stock shares. Citi’s figure covers all types of crypto investment funds, not just Bitcoin-focused ones.

This target seems quite attainable. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had an impressive week, collecting about $2.4 billion in inflows through September 25, marking their strongest performance since October 2025. In just five trading days, these funds attracted nearly half of the total amount Citi expects for the entire year.

Citi’s historical figures also reveal how little the inflow forecast moves its target on its own. Earlier in 2026, the bank set a Bitcoin target of $112,000 while forecasting $10 billion in inflows. The slightly higher target of $113,000 suggests other factors may be driving Citi’s predictions.

Citi’s Bitcoin Target Has Swung Between $82,000 and $143,000 in 2026

A prominent golden Bitcoin coin, textured and detailed, glows with a bright light and spark on its right side. The dark blue background shows electric blue lightning bolts, dynamic green and red candlestick charts indicating market activity, and digital financial figures.

Morrowind / Shutterstock.com

Citi’s Bitcoin price targets have fluctuated considerably this year. The bank initially projected $143,000, then lowered it to $112,000. It then fell to $82,000 on July 1, predicting no net inflows and issuing a bearish estimate of $53,000. Just three months later, the target has bounced back to $113,000.

According to Saunders, this latest increase is linked to improved activity in the crypto market, new SEC rule proposals that have alleviated investor concerns, and the U.S. Treasury repurchasing longer-dated bonds. He also said the failure of the CLARITY Act, a market structure bill Congress abandoned in September, allowed Bitcoin to regain key price levels as the SEC stepped in with its own regulatory guidance.

Thus, Citi’s target adapts to market dynamics as much as it aims to forecast them. The revision comes after Bitcoin surged by nearly a third over the past 90 days and began attracting investment again.

A 5.17% Treasury Yield and the 2028 Election Could Work Against Citi’s Target

Bitcoin mining concept. Mining farm.

Mindscape studio / Shutterstock.com

One challenge to consider is the current 10-year Treasury yield, which stood at 5.17% as of September 25. This yield represents the return that the U.S. government offers for lending money over a decade. Since Bitcoin doesn’t earn interest, investors, such as pension funds, might prefer the safer returns from Treasury bonds.

Saunders pointed out another risk: the political landscape might change by the 2028 elections. A new administration could repeal some SEC regulations that affect his forecasts, since these rules can be altered more easily than laws passed through Congress.

What Has to Go Right for Bitcoin to Reach Citi’s $113,000 Target?

For Bitcoin to reach Citi’s $113,000 target, three conditions need to be met:

  1. Price Stability: Bitcoin must stay above $82,000, Citi’s zero-inflow estimate, and roughly 5% below the current price.
  2. Positive ETF Inflows: ETF inflows must stay positive, a manageable requirement given the relatively low $5 billion target.
  3. Regulatory Consistency: The SEC’s regulations need to remain in place.

If these three conditions are met, Bitcoin stands a good chance of reaching Citi’s ambitious forecast.

However, Citi frequently revises its targets. The bank previously lowered its target by $61,000 between early 2026 and July, and its bear case from July suggests a price of $53,000, which is about 38% lower than Bitcoin’s current trading value. Should the price dip back below $82,000, it could indicate that the demand Citi anticipates has not materialized.

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Sam Daodu

Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.

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