Solana Needs a 167% Rally to Reach Its All-Time High, While Ethereum Requires 97%. Which Will Get There First?
Ethereum and Solana are both deep in the red from their peaks, but one faces a dramatically harder climb back. The gap between their recovery paths reveals a surprising tension over which coin could reclaim its glory first.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) is currently about 167% away from its all-time high of $293, achieved in January 2025. Meanwhile, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) is about 97% short of its August 2025 record high of $4,946. This difference in their required gains sets the stage for a comparison of which cryptocurrency may recover its peak first.
As of October 10, 2026, Solana trades at about $110, down 63% from its peak. Meanwhile, Ethereum is priced around $2,511, down 49% from its peak. Both cryptocurrencies have recently declined, with Ethereum down 6.4% and Solana down 7.9%, making them among the market’s weaker performers.
Over the past 30 days, however, the trend has shifted. Solana has gained 8.5% while Ethereum has only increased by 1.1%. So, which coin is more likely to recover its highs first?
Solana’s 63% Drop Needs a Far Bigger Climb Than Ethereum’s 49%
The percentage increase required to recover from a loss is always greater than the percentage lost. For instance, if an investor loses half their investment, they need to double the remainder to break even. This principle applies to both Solana and Ethereum.
Currently, Ethereum’s decline stands at about 49%, requiring a 97% increase to bounce back. In contrast, Solana is down 63% and needs a 167% increase to return to its peak. Essentially, Solana’s higher percentage drop translates into a longer climb back to its former high, giving it a tougher recovery challenge than Ethereum.
Ethereum Has Bigger Funds, but Solana and Ethereum Both Face Outflows
Ethereum benefits from having significantly more capital behind it, with U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs managing approximately $15.7 billion. This investment base gives Ethereum a broad pool of traditional investors who can easily buy the cryptocurrency through regular brokerage accounts.
However, recent trends show investors withdrawing funds. Ethereum has seen nine consecutive days of outflows, meaning more money has left than entered during that time. When this happens, funds may need to sell ETH to cover withdrawals, adding selling pressure on its price.
In contrast, Solana’s fund size is considerably smaller at around $1.73 billion, and it has faced outflows for five consecutive days.
Solana Has the Faster Network, but Its Recent Returns Are Mixed
Solana has also improved its technical capabilities. On October 9, it completed an upgrade that reduced its slot time, the window each block gets to collect transactions, from 400 milliseconds to 200 milliseconds. This improvement enables faster transaction processing, but it may not immediately affect price, as it improves network performance without offering direct benefits to SOL holders.
In terms of recent price performance, the two cryptocurrencies send mixed signals. Over the last 30 days, Solana leads with an 8.5% increase, while Ethereum rises 1.1%. However, looking back over the past week, Solana’s price has dropped 7.9%, while Ethereum’s decline is slightly less severe at 6.4%.
Across different time frames, it’s hard to name a clear leader. Neither coin has a guaranteed path back to its former high, and industry analysts have not published forecasts for when either might recover.
Which Will Bounce Back First, Solana or Ethereum?
In our view, Ethereum has the advantage in its recovery path. With a required climb of only 97%, its path back to the highs seems more achievable than Solana’s daunting 167% requirement. Momentum also matters; while Solana showed stronger performance over 30 days, its recent seven-day decline raises questions. Additionally, Ethereum’s $15.7 billion in managed funds could significantly influence its price once capital inflows resume.
Yet, both coins are currently facing outflows. If Ethereum ends its outflow streak and posts a day of net inflows, its shorter climb could become a significant advantage. Conversely, if Solana’s outflows reverse first and its performance turns positive over the next few days while Ethereum’s struggles continue, Solana’s momentum could change the game.
Ultimately, it’s hard to say with certainty which cryptocurrency will regain its peak first, but the metrics tell a compelling story.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
