Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) have followed similar trajectories, with their market value soaring and then facing sharp pullbacks.
Solana hit its all-time high of $294 in January 2025, and seven months later, Ethereum reached its all-time high of $4,950. Now Solana trades near $82, roughly 72% down from its peak, while Ethereum is at $2,012, down 59% from its high. To get back to their all-time highs, Solana needs to retrace nearly 258%, while Ethereum must rise about 146%.
We’re not particularly concerned with which of these coins reclaims their record highs. Rather, we’re asking if Solana can close the $196 billion market cap gap to Ethereum in the next 19 months. For that to happen, Solana would have to quintuple in value, and that’s only if Ethereum stops growing in the meantime.
What Solana Needs to Flip Ethereum
Solana received SEC approval to trade spot ETFs on October 28, 2025, becoming the third cryptocurrency after Bitcoin and Ethereum to clear that bar.
By late May 2026, Solana spot ETFs had pulled in $1.13 billion in cumulative inflows, with Goldman Sachs disclosing a $108 million position in February before fully exiting the position in its Q1 2026 13F filing on May 15. The post-ETF setup is similar to the pattern that led Bitcoin to its $126,000 ATH, but Solana hasn’t seen the same sustained institutional follow-through yet.
Solana also has two technical upgrades ahead. Jump Crypto’s Firedancer client launched on Solana mainnet in December 2025 and targets a long-term goal of 1 million transactions per second. Current production throughput on Solana runs in the 3,000-5,000 TPS range as Firedancer adoption rolls out across validators.
The second catalyst is the Alpenglow upgrade, which entered community validator testing on May 11 and targets a mainnet launch as early as Q3 2026. Alpenglow cuts transaction finality from 12.8 seconds to 100-150 milliseconds and removes on-chain vote transactions from the consensus process, freeing significant block space for user activity.
On retail patronage, Solana seems to be genuinely ahead of Ethereum. In April 2026, Solana’s weekly DEX volume reached $11.49 billion, ahead of Ethereum’s $7.62 billion by 51%. Daily active addresses on Solana run several times higher than Ethereum’s base-layer count. The differences show where users are actually transacting between the two networks.
Ethereum’s Strongest Defense Against a Flippening
Ethereum has continued building on the back of technical upgrades, with its latest upgrade, Glamsterdam, now confirmed for Q3 2026 after missing the H1 target. The upgrade sets a 200 million gas limit floor, a 3.3x increase over the current 60 million, and targets 10,000 TPS and a 78% reduction in gas fees. Ethereum currently processes 15-30 TPS on its base layer, so this upgrade would transform what’s possible at the mainnet level entirely.
The throughput increase positions Ethereum to close the performance gap that has pushed developers toward competing alternatives since 2023. Cheaper fees and faster transactions would win Ethereum back more active users. If the upgrade launches successfully, it would further widen the market cap gap between Ethereum and Solana rather than narrow it.
Ethereum has another catalyst behind it: Morgan Stanley filed for a spot Ethereum ETF with staking on January 6, 2026, as part of a broader push that also included Bitcoin and Solana filings within 48 hours. Ethereum spot ETFs currently hold roughly $12 billion in assets, more than 10 times Solana’s $1.13 billion in cumulative inflows. A 10x institutional lead doesn’t close in one cycle even if Solana keeps growing.
Does Solana Overtake Ethereum by 2028?
We do not believe that Solana will overtake Ethereum by 2028. The gap between the two networks is too wide. Ethereum’s $243 billion market cap is $196 billion ahead of Solana’s $47 billion, meaning Solana would need to grow 417% just to pull level, while Ethereum continues attracting institutional capital. Ethereum also edges Solana on total spot ETF assets, with roughly a 10x lead between the two.
Both coins trade well below their all-time highs, but Solana is farther from its peak than Ethereum, needing 258% to rebound while Ethereum needs 146%. Both also have upgrades coming that could spark a new cycle. With Glamsterdam, Alpenglow, and Firedancer all in motion, both networks could see bullish moves toward reclaiming their highs.
However, if Solana and Ethereumboth launch their upgrades as planned, the market cap gap stays roughly in place. Solana may close ground on Ethereum by 2028, but it doesn’t fully overtake it. The gap could grow narrower, but $196 billion is unlikely to disappear in just two years.
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