Why Is Ethereum Stuck Below $2,500 in 2026?
Three of Ethereum's biggest buyers all stepped back at the same moment, and the price has been drifting sideways ever since. Here is what those buyers were doing and why their absence matters.
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The Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) price keeps stalling around $2,500. Ether trades at $2,501 as of October 11, 2026, down 15.7% for the year from $2,967 at the end of 2025.
The shorter time frames send mixed signals. Ethereum is up 1.4% over 30 days, barely a gain, but down 7.3% over the past seven days, erasing a month of slow progress in a single week. So why can’t the second-largest cryptocurrency break away from $2,500?
Ethereum Needs a 97.8% Gain to Recover From a 49.4% Drop
Ethereum trades 49.4% below its August 2025 record of $4,946, so it needs a 97.8% gain to get back there. Both numbers describe the same distance. A drop is measured from the high, while a recovery is measured from the lower price, so a roughly 50% drop takes close to a doubling to undo.
That math explains why recoveries feel slow, and buyer behavior explains why the price stops moving. Every coin someone sells needs a buyer on the other side. When large, steady buyers who were absorbing that supply step back, sellers must accept lower prices or wait, so the price drifts sideways or slips. In Ethereum’s case, three demand sources pulled back at the same time.
Spot Ethereum ETFs Have Turned Into Sellers
Spot Ethereum ETFs hold Ether directly and trade on stock exchanges like shares. According to SoSoValue, the funds posted net outflows for nine consecutive sessions through October 9. Their net assets fell to $15.71 billion on October 9 from $17.69 billion earlier that week.
However, only about $542 million of that $1.98 billion decline was money leaving the funds. The remaining $1.44 billion came from the falling price of the ether they still hold, so most of the drop reflects price, with redemptions adding to it.
Fund flows are only one of several forces on the price. Even so, nine straight sessions of redemptions show that a group of buyers that used to absorb supply has gone quiet for now.
BitMine Will Stop Buying Ethereum at 5% of the Supply
BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSEAMERICAN:BMNR | BMNR Price Prediction) buys Ether and holds it as a treasury asset, much like a corporate savings account. BitMine chairman Tom Lee said on October 7 that the company will stop buying once it holds 5% of Ethereum’s supply. BitMine is roughly 100,000 ETH, about $250 million at current prices, away from that mark.
Because BitMine announced a ceiling, traders can count down to the end of its buying. Each purchase brings the company closer to the point where that demand disappears, making it hard for traders to use BitMine as a reason to bid the price higher.
Ethereum’s Supply Has Stopped Shrinking
Ethereum burns part of the fees it collects, which destroys that slice of Ether for good instead of paying it to anyone. When the network is busy, the burn can exceed the new ether paid to validators, the computers that secure the network and earn fresh coins for it, so supply shrinks. When activity is quiet, the burn falls short, and supply grows.
Ultrasound.money, a site that tracks Ethereum’s issuance and burn, shows supply is no longer shrinking. That hurts the scarcity argument that drew many buyers, since the argument only works while supply is falling.
Together, the fund outflows, BitMine’s limit, and the stalled burn line up with the stall, but they don’t prove they caused it. They are the three largest identifiable demand sources absorbing supply, and all three pulled back at the same moment. The price can also stall for reasons outsiders can’t see, such as a large holder quietly selling over months without announcing it.
Can Ethereum Clear $2,500 for Good?
We think Ethereum probably can’t clear $2,500 for good anytime soon because all three pressures remain, and no new buyer has stepped in to replace them. The funds are selling, BitMine has said roughly where its buying ends, and the burn isn’t matching new issuance. A short move above $2,500 could still happen, but it would rest on demand that hasn’t returned yet.
New buying with no announced ceiling could change that view. If the spot funds string together nine consecutive sessions of inflows and outflows. money shows supply shrinking again, the stall has likely broken, and our reading is wrong. However, if the outflow streak continues once BitMine reaches 5%, pressure on Ethereum will likely increase.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
