Bitcoin Fell Five Days in a Row While Nearly 15,000 BTC Left Exchanges. Is a Bounce Coming?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has trended downward, closing lower for five consecutive days from October 22 to October 26, 2026. During this period, traders withdrew 14,942 BTC—worth about $1.2 billion—from crypto exchanges ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Typically, higher Bitcoin exchange outflows are viewed positively, suggesting that holders are removing supply from the market, which is usually bullish. However, in this case, the price kept falling.

Bitcoin trades at $80,566, down 4.7% over the past week and 3.6% in October. Jesse Marre from Hilbert Group described this streak of daily losses as “pretty rare” in his weekly update. So, does the combination of falling prices and decreasing exchange balances set the stage for a rebound, or is there a valid reason behind this selling pressure?

Exchange Outflows Are Typically Bullish, But This Pattern Is Uncommon

An exchange outflow occurs when Bitcoin moves from exchange-associated wallets to untagged wallets. Traders usually see this as a positive sign because coins held on exchanges can be sold instantly, while those in private wallets take more effort to liquidate. Significant outflows often indicate that long-term holders are withdrawing assets from the market.

The streak of negative days has intensified selling pressure. After peaking at $84,856 on October 21, Bitcoin posted five consecutive red days, briefly dipping below $80,000 and hitting a low of $79,107 on October 24.

This marks the first five-day downturn in the last 90 days. Prior runs lasted only four days, seen in August, September, and early October, each followed by a rebound within two weeks. For example, Bitcoin closed at $76,537 on September 10 before rising to $86,595 by September 21.

However, those recoveries occurred as Bitcoin bounced back from a lower price of $58,566 on June 30. The cryptocurrency is still up 24.5% over the past three months, but upward momentum has stalled over the past month.

Why the Outflow Signal Is Weaker Than It Looks

An outflow merely tracks Bitcoin moving from an exchange-associated address to one not labeled as such. This doesn’t clarify who moved the coins or their reasoning. For instance, a corporate treasury transfer looks the same on-chain as an individual investor moving coins for long-term holding.

Notably, Whale Alert detected a transfer of 640 BTC worth $52 million from Coinbase Institutional—the large client division of Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction)—to an unidentified wallet. This movement could indicate a fund shifting assets to cold storage, a trading desk involved in a private deal, or a new buyer—all of which would appear the same on-chain.

Moreover, Lookonchain reported that MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA), a Bitcoin mining company, transferred another 1,000 BTC valued at $81 million to BitGo Holdings (NYSE: BTGO), a digital asset custody firm. A miner might send coins to a custodian for various purposes, such as storage, loan collateral, or sale, but each action shows up similarly on the blockchain.

Additionally, a significant visibility gap remains. Most buying activity occurs within an exchange’s internal order book. When trades occur, they update the exchange’s ledger without affecting the blockchain, so a quiet blockchain could signal either accumulation or a lack of investor interest.

Marre interpreted this week’s price movements as driven mainly by spot trading, suggesting the selling came from active traders, which affects price more than simple wallet transfers.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Buyers Are Returning, Yet Total Inflows Remain Below Recent Highs

October is shaping up to be one of Bitcoin’s worst months in six years, continuing a “Downtober” trend driven by weakened U.S. demand for spot Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs directly reflect demand: net inflows create new shares, forcing the fund to acquire actual Bitcoin to back them.

Marre pointed out that October 22 alone saw $635 million in ETF outflows, marking the largest outflow day since June. However, SoSoValue data shows the funds ended the week of October 19 with $305 million in net inflows.

Buyers are returning, as spot ETFs brought in $110 million on October 26 and $176 million on October 27, with iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) accounting for $151 million of the total on October 27. By October 27, cumulative net inflows stood at $57.47 billion, slightly lower than the $57.96 billion peak reached on October 21.

Increased borrowing costs are putting additional pressure on Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve’s upper target rate has been at 4.00% since it increased from 3.75% on September 17. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.00% on October 26, raising the cost of holding Bitcoin—an asset that pays no interest.

Bitcoin is currently trading below its 20-day average of $81,875 and its 50-day average of $81,840, both about 1.6% higher, but still well above its 200-day average of $73,029, which is about 9.4% lower.

So, Do Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Signal a Rebound After Five Days of Declines?

At this point, a bounce doesn’t appear imminent. The previous four-day downturns rebounded during a dominant uptrend, but unlike those situations, the current uptrend seems to have lost momentum.

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