Should You Buy Coinbase Stock Under $170?

Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) stock is trading around $170 after a 4.1% premarket drop on October 22, 2026. At this price, we believe the shares are fairly valued. The stock rose 5% on October 21 after the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) finalized rules related to the GENIUS Act stablecoin law. However, it lost most of that gain before the market opened.

As the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. and a co-founder of USD Coin (CRYPTO: USDC), Coinbase is facing challenges. After three straight quarters of missing earnings expectations, the stock has dropped 24.9% this year. So, is Coinbase stock under $170 a bargain, or is it a value trap?

Stablecoin and Subscription Revenue Give Coinbase Steadier Income

Coinbase is becoming less reliant on trading fees than in the past. In Q2 2026, subscription and services revenue reached $555 million, accounting for 48% of total net revenue. This included $292 million generated from stablecoins.

In contrast, consumer transaction revenue was $452 million, meaning subscriptions outperformed retail trading by around $100 million. This stablecoin income is tied to USDC balances, which tend to remain more consistent than trading volumes.

The OCC’s new rule could further safeguard that income. The GENIUS Act prevents issuers from paying interest to holders, so Circle (NYSE: CRCL) shares reserve income with Coinbase, which can then offer users rewards in USDC. Interestingly, the final rule appears to have omitted a proposed ban on exchange rewards.

Additionally, customers are depositing more funds on the platform. The average USDC balance held in Coinbase products reached a record $20 billion, while Coinbase’s portion of crypto trading hit an all-time high of 10.3%.

Three Earnings Misses Leave Coinbase Stock Behind Bitcoin

Despite its strengths, Coinbase has missed earnings estimates in Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026. In Q2, revenue fell to $1.22 billion, down 18.5% from the previous year, and GAAP loss widened to $1.36 per share. Platform assets also fell roughly 16% in one quarter, from $294 billion to $246 billion.

Coinbase shares have lagged behind Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), which is down 3.8% in 2026 but up 31.4% over the past 90 days. This disconnect suggests that investors are uncertain whether a cryptocurrency rebound could quickly boost trading revenue.

Analysts anticipate a full-year 2026 loss of $1.78 per share, while the stock currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 54, suggesting that investors expect a return to profitability soon. However, the new rule does not provide guaranteed legal protection for exchange rewards, leaving this income stream vulnerable.

Analysts See About 25% Upside Ahead of Coinbase’s Q3 Report

The average analyst price target for Coinbase is $212, indicating a potential gain of about 24.9% from the current price. Of 37 analysts covering Coinbase, 23 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it a Hold, and 2 rate it a Sell or Strong Sell. However, these targets are not guarantees and often reflect past movements.

Coinbase has underperformed the broader market, down 24.9% this year, while the S&P 500 is up 12.2%. Over the last month, Coinbase has dropped 15.5%, while the index has dipped slightly by 1.1%. The shares trade at 7.5 times sales, roughly 54% below their 52-week high of $373, yet about 22% above their 52-week low of $139.

Coinbase will release its Q3 results after the market closes on October 29. Analysts project a $0.22 per-share loss, with total revenue around $1.2 billion. Management also guided subscription and services revenue to $500 million to $580 million. The midpoint of this range, $540 million, is slightly below Q2’s revenue of $555 million.

Should You Buy Coinbase Stock Under $170?

At about $170, we believe Coinbase stock is fairly valued until Q3 results show trading revenue has stabilized. While the revenue mix is improving, transaction revenue has not yet bottomed out. If subscription revenue hits the high end of guidance and trading volume increases after Bitcoin’s recent rally and strong ETF inflows, our outlook could become more positive. Analysts already forecast modest Q4 earnings of about $0.10 per share.

However, we would adopt a cautious stance if subscription revenue dips below $500 million or if exchanges reduce USDC rewards before the new rule takes effect on January 18, 2027. The risk of waiting is significant, as Coinbase has a beta of 3.4, meaning its stock is much more volatile than the market. A strong earnings report could send the stock soaring, but an earnings miss could plunge shares by about 18%, bringing them closer to the $139 low.

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