Coinbase Is Down 26% in October: Hold On to COIN Stock, or Drop It Like a Hot Potato?
Coinbase stock cratered 26% in October even as the company posted a surprise profit, and now Wall Street analysts are pointing in opposite directions. Whether COIN belongs in your portfolio or on the chopping block depends on which version of…
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October turned a slow year for crypto into a rout for one major crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) stock is down 26% in October to $138.07, from a September 30 close of $186.41. That slide includes a 14% drop from the prior session’s close.
The October decline extends a longer slump, with Coinbase stock lower both year to date and over the past year. Crypto-linked stocks generally have slumped, a stretch described as a “stealth bear market” for crypto stocks. The real question for long-term shareholders is whether Coinbase’s push beyond spot trading rewards their patience.
How Robinhood and Interactive Brokers Stack Up Against Coinbase
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) stock is at $82.72, down 29% over the past month. That’s a larger fall than Coinbase’s, so the damage isn’t limited to the crypto exchange. Over the same stretch, Interactive Brokers Group (NASDAQ:IBKR) stock is down 12% to $75.67, a much smaller decline.
Crypto activity drives far more of Coinbase’s business than either peer’s. By contrast, Robinhood combines crypto with equities, options, event contracts, banking and subscriptions. Interactive Brokers runs an automated global brokerage that rewards commissions and net interest across stocks, commodities, currencies and prediction markets. When crypto trading cools, Coinbase tends to feel it first.
Why Coinbase Bulls Want to Stay the Course
Coinbase returned to profit in Q3 2026, posting net income of $719 million in results released October 29. The company’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) reached $333 million, exceeding the $290 million Wall Street analysts expected. Both of Coinbase’s core revenue lines beat expectations, with transaction revenue at $590 million and subscriptions and services revenue at $570 million. A recurring stream also comes from stablecoins, where the company’s revenue reached $307 million on record balances of USDC (CRYPTO:USDC).
Growth beyond spot trading may matter more. Coinbase says its prediction markets business crossed $200 million in annualized run-rate revenue. On the earnings call, Coinbase CFO Alesia Haas said, “Predictions plus derivatives, so those two combined, were about 25% of our total transaction revenue.” In October, the company combined its international exchange and Deribit into one regulated global derivatives exchange.
Some analysts still see substantial upside, and Canaccord adjusted its price target on Coinbase to $275. Management also repeated Coinbase’s commitment to positive adjusted EBITDA in all market conditions.
Why Coinbase Skeptics Would Rather Stay Away
Most of Coinbase’s reported profit came from $715 million in gains on crypto held for investment. Strip those out, and the company’s adjusted net income was $78 million. Coinbase’s operating income fell 87.2% year over year to $61.7 million, while its revenue of $1.22 billion declined 35% and slightly missed estimates.
Wall Street’s response was swift, as Barclays cut its Coinbase price target to $120 from $149 and Mizuho lowered its target to $145. Fourth-quarter trading started slowly too, with Coinbase reporting approximately $165 million in transaction revenue through October 25. Crypto volatility also remains at multi-year lows, which tends to reduce trading.
Lower interest rates could pressure Coinbase’s stablecoin income, and USDC faces competition from other dollar tokens. Confidence across crypto platforms has been shaken by the record $6.3 billion hack at Binance. If crypto prices stay weak into year-end, the investment gains that lifted Q3 could reverse.
What Could Decide Coinbase’s Long-Term Path
The next test for Coinbase is whether derivatives and event contracts can keep growing fast enough to offset softer spot trading. Retirement-minded readers can watch three key metrics. Trading volumes, crypto volatility and the direction of interest rates each feed directly into the company’s revenue.
A long time horizon fits the stay-the-course case. So does a high tolerance for swings, because COIN stock trades like a leveraged proxy for crypto activity. Coinbase’s swings may sit poorly with portfolios that need steady value near retirement; modest position sizing is prudent while the debate over Coinbase’s trading slump resolves.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
