Can Bitcoin Get Back Above $85,000 in November?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) approached $85,000, falling about $150 short during the week, before sellers pushed the price down. As of the morning of October 24, the Bitcoin price stands at $80,530, reflecting a 3.5% decrease in October. Throughout the week, it has fluctuated between a high of $84,856 and a low of $80,401.

The market continues to test the $85,000 mark, with Bitcoin hitting a 30-day peak of $87,249. On the October 17 episode of The Pomp Podcast, host Anthony Pompliano noted that Bitcoin had been fluctuating between $82,000 and $85,000 while stock prices fell. Since then, Bitcoin has slipped below that range.

The question now is whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $85,000 level in November, and what conditions would need to change for that to happen.

Bitcoin Has Four Price Levels to Clear Before $85,000

Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day average of $81,776 and its 20-day average of $82,826. A moving average represents the average closing price over a specific period, and when Bitcoin closes above these averages, it often suggests buyers are gaining control.

Next, Bitcoin needs to overcome the October open of $83,556, which is 3.8% above its current price, to erase October’s losses. It must also push past the week’s high of $84,856, a price level where sellers have previously stepped in.

A single strong trading day could help Bitcoin break through all these levels. However, buyers who bought near these levels may sell as soon as they break even. An analyst known as Financelot mentioned on X on October 23 that Bitcoin may have bottomed out earlier than expected and is struggling to overcome its 60-week average.

Historically, November has seen both upward and downward swings for Bitcoin. In November 2024, it opened at $70,347 and closed at $96,436, marking a 37.1% increase. Conversely, in November 2025, it opened at $109,556, dipped to $80,525, and closed at $90,370, a 17.5% loss.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Need to Return to Inflows

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold Bitcoin and trade like stocks, experienced significant net outflows of $635.6 million on October 22, indicating that investors withdrew more money than they invested. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) recorded another $110.3 million in net outflows on October 23.

However, these funds can shift quickly. On October 19 and October 21, they saw net inflows of $526.6 million and $528.4 million, respectively, according to SoSoValue. As of October 22, cumulative net inflows totaled $57.3 billion. A few days of strong inflows could signal that buyers are ready to propel Bitcoin past $85,000.

High Oil and Weak Tech Stocks Weigh on Bitcoin

High oil prices and weak tech stock performance are weighing on Bitcoin. On October 20, WTI crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, traded at $108 a barrel, up 13.1% in a week after peaking at $110 on October 19. About a month earlier, oil prices were at $85. High oil prices contribute to inflation, which often puts downward pressure on speculative assets like Bitcoin.

This pressure remains present, as oil prices rose again on October 23 amid concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) dropped 5% over the month leading up to October 23. Bitcoin tends to mirror tech stocks, particularly during periods of market uncertainty.

One positive factor has emerged. The 10-year Treasury yield, the government’s long-term borrowing rate, fell to 4.96% on October 22 from 5.31% on October 5. Lower yields typically make riskier investments like Bitcoin more appealing.

The November 3 Midterms Could Calm or Shake Markets

Elections are scheduled for November 3, with Polymarket showing the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win the House and 67.5% to win the Senate as of today. If the results align closely with these percentages, market uncertainty may ease. However, unexpected results could increase market volatility.

The VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose to 19 on October 22, up 15.6% in a week. This metric is slightly below the 20-point level, where markets typically become anxious.

Can the Bitcoin Price Get Back Above $85,000 in November?

It is possible, but it may only be short-lived. We believe Bitcoin could reach above $85,000—a 5.6% rise—at some point in November since it has already reached $87,249 in the past 30 days. However, the likelihood of it holding this level through the November 30 close seems low unless ETF inflows start trending positively.

Bitcoin first needs to surpass both moving averages, then post a series of positive ETF inflow days after the November 3 vote. Next, it would have to close above the $83,556 level from October’s open, then break through $84,856 while oil prices drop back below $100. On the downside, if Bitcoin closes below the 30-day low of $79,676—only 1.1% lower—while outflows continue, a return to $85,000 may slip into December or later.

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