Hedera (HBAR) and Stellar (XLM) Fell 17% and 14% in Two Weeks. Which Recovers First?

Hedera (CRYPTO: HBAR) has declined 16.8% over the past two weeks, bringing its price to around $0.077. Similarly, Stellar (CRYPTO: XLM) has dropped 13.4% and is trading at about $0.1698 as of October 24, 2026. Both cryptocurrencies hit their lowest points in the last month on October 23, with HBAR at $0.0757 and XLM at $0.1705, and XLM is now hovering just below that mark.

These losses are not limited to the past two weeks. HBAR is down 27.5% in 2026 and 86.5% from its all-time high, while XLM is down 14.3% this year and 80.6% from its peak. Both projects target banks and large enterprises, which raises the question: which one is likely to recover its early-October price first?

HBAR Needs a 22% Gain and XLM a 19% Gain to Recover

For HBAR to return to its October 11 price, it would need to rise 22.3%, as it closed at $0.0941 that day. XLM, on the other hand, needs a 19.5% increase to go back to its October 11 close of $0.203.

Currently, HBAR has a market cap of $3.41 billion, while Stellar’s stands at $5.98 billion. Both coins continue to increase their supply. HBAR’s circulating supply is approaching its maximum, as our Hedera analysis shows, while the Stellar Development Foundation is releasing XLM from its reserves. This means that buyers must absorb additional tokens just to keep the prices stable.

For HBAR to regain lost ground, it first needs to surpass $0.0817, its highest point on October 23—about 6.2% above its current trading price. The next hurdle is $0.0896, the peak reached on October 18. For XLM, the first target is $0.187, the October 21 high, about 10.2% higher than its current level.

However, XLM faces additional challenges. Analysts noted on October 22 that its recovery efforts stalled below key exponential moving averages—trend lines that prioritize recent prices—suggesting sellers are likely to intervene around those levels. Therefore, XLM’s first barrier appears to be more difficult than HBAR’s.

Hedera and Stellar Back the SEC’s Crypto Rule, but Both Kept Falling

Both Hedera and Stellar have supported a proposed SEC regulation on crypto assets—a draft open for public comment before a final vote. The HBAR Foundation has also asked the SEC to reiterate its March 2026 stance that HBAR should be classified as a digital commodity, which would subject it to commodity regulations.

Despite this backing, the market reactions were muted. HBAR fell from $0.0839 on October 21 to $0.0770 by October 24—a drop of 8.2%—while XLM slipped from $0.184 to $0.172. This suggests that traders largely dismissed the comments, making the anticipated SEC vote a crucial upcoming event.

Hedera’s ETF Buyers Have Gone Quiet Since IBM’s App Launch

Spot HBAR exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which directly hold the coin and trade like stocks, have seen total net inflows of $113.8 million as of October 23. However, recent activity has stalled, with the funds experiencing minimal new inflows in October and even a $559,000 outflow on October 16.

The total net assets in these funds dropped from $98.6 million on September 28 to $62.6 million on October 23—a decline of 36.5%. This drop has significantly affected the value of ETF investors’ holdings.

On September 28, IBM (NYSE: IBM | IBM Price Prediction) launched a Hedera-based identity application, which spiked HBAR’s price to $0.131 before it closed at $0.122. With HBAR’s governing council consisting of major global organizations, the coin has strong corporate ties. However, HBAR quickly retraced this gain, indicating that positive news often provides a short-term bump that fades quickly.

DTCC Gives Stellar a Dated Catalyst in 2027

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which provides post-trade services for U.S. markets, announced plans on May 27 to bring DTC-custodied assets onto the Stellar network. This tokenization will convert assets such as stocks, ETFs, and Treasury bonds into digital tokens on a blockchain. The DTCC and the Stellar Development Foundation aim to have these assets on the Stellar platform by the first half of 2027.

However, the initial DTCC services will run on different networks, as our analysis of Stellar notes. Because Stellar transactions incur only minimal fees, XLM’s price could depend heavily on the trading volume these tokenized securities generate.

Which of HBAR and XLM Could Recover First?

In conclusion, Stellar seems to have the clearer advantage for a potential recovery. XLM has dropped less over the past two weeks, has shown a smaller annual decline, and needs only a 19.5% rise to return to its October 11 closing price, while HBAR needs a 22.3% increase. Additionally, XLM has a longer-term catalyst in DTCC’s 2027 plans, while recent investment interest in HBAR ETFs has cooled.

XLM needs to close above $0.187 and regain its position above key moving averages, then push past $0.203 before revisiting its previous high of $0.237 from September 29. Meanwhile, HBAR must surpass $0.0817, then $0.0896 and eventually $0.0941. Ideally, renewed ETF inflows, similar to the $2.1 million seen on October 1, would support this. However, if XLM closes below its recent low of $0.1705, HBAR’s relatively stronger performance over the last 90 days—up 9.7% compared to XLM’s 5.7% decline—could give Hedera the edge in recovery.

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