What Would Have to Happen for Hedera (HBAR) to Reach $0.25?

Hedera (CRYPTO:HBAR) needs a 209.6% increase to return to $0.25, a level it last reached on September 19, 2025. Investors are particularly attentive to this threshold because HBAR held that level for several weeks in mid-2025, closing July 2025 at about $0.251.

However, HBAR’s price has moved downward. HBAR trades around $0.081, down 4.8% in 24 hours, 14.3% over the past two weeks, and 14.8% over the last month. Furthermore, it remains 85.8% below its all-time high of $0.57.

In October, HBAR has fluctuated between $0.107 and $0.080 and trades barely above this month’s low. This decline followed a surge to $0.131 in September. So, what would it take for HBAR to reach $0.25 again?

HBAR Needs an $11 Billion Market Cap to Hit $0.25

To understand HBAR’s price target, look at market capitalization, which is calculated by multiplying the coin’s price by the number of tokens in circulation. With a current market cap of about $3.56 billion, HBAR would need to rise to $0.25 to reach about $11 billion.

Unfortunately, the increasing supply of HBAR makes this challenge more daunting. Around 44 billion HBAR tokens are in circulation out of a maximum of 50 billion. This growing supply means reaching the same price level now requires significantly more buyer investment than when HBAR traded above $0.25 in 2021.

The difference in capitalization is evident. When HBAR neared $0.122 in late September, its market cap reached about $5.35 billion. At its $0.57 peak on September 15, 2021, today’s supply would carry an astounding market cap of about $25.1 billion.

Hedera’s Network Activity Jumped, but Fees Aren’t Driving HBAR Demand

Hedera is a public network that lets businesses record data, issue tokens, and process payments. Every transaction incurs a fee paid in HBAR, which Hedera sets at fixed U.S. dollar amounts. This fee structure generates much of the demand for HBAR.

In the past month, Hedera has seen a 168.4% increase in transactions, and the total value locked (TVL) in its apps has risen by 12.3% to $33.2 million. However, despite this growth, the HBAR price has declined. Since transaction fees are only a fraction of a cent, even a substantial uptick in activity fails to create significant buying pressure.

Additionally, on October 21, Hedera launched its Network MCP on testnet—a tool that lets AI agents suggest transactions like sending HBAR or creating tokens. However, a testnet is a practice network where tokens don’t carry market value, so this launch doesn’t yet boost demand for HBAR.

IBM Deals and an SEC Request Could Lift HBAR, but Past Gains Faded Fast

Hedera has partnered with IBM (NYSE:IBM | IBM Price Prediction) on its IDTrust project, integrated with the watsonx AI platform. IDTrust helps record identity credentials for AI agents via the Hedera Consensus Service. Hedera has also joined the UK’s Wholesale Digital Markets Champion Taskforce, and projects like HashPack and SODAX are working to improve access to tokenized assets on Hedera. Still, neither HashPack nor SODAX has revealed its fee structure.

While these enterprise announcements have occasionally driven up HBAR’s price, the increases have often been short-lived. For instance, HBAR surged 27% on September 28 after IBM released a Hedera-based identity app for its cloud, only to give back 16% the following day and close September 29 at around $0.102.

Recent regulatory developments could also provide upward momentum. On October 21, the HBAR Foundation, along with five other blockchain organizations, urged the SEC to formalize its March 2026 interpretation classifying their tokens as digital commodities under the proposed Regulation Crypto Assets rule. However, the SEC may choose to leave this interpretation as nonbinding guidance.

HBAR Needs Bitcoin’s Momentum for a Broader Crypto Rally

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) accounts for roughly 60% of the total crypto market value, meaning that smaller cryptocurrencies like HBAR often follow its trends. On October 21, Bitcoin bounced alongside a tech-stock rebound, but it then fell 2% over 24 hours to around $81,800 today.

However, HBAR has generally lagged Bitcoin during rallies and has fallen more sharply during selloffs. Over the last 90 days, Bitcoin rose 31.4%, while HBAR gained only 18.6%. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has decreased by 3.8%, while HBAR has dropped 20.9%.

Market sentiment is showing little upward or downward pressure. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at a neutral 51.

Can HBAR Reach $0.25 Again?

It seems unlikely that HBAR will reclaim the $0.25 mark by the end of 2027. Reaching this price would require a 209.6% increase, a market cap of about $11 billion, and transparency in fee revenue from Hedera’s partners. If HBAR fails to close above $0.10 by November 30 and partners remain tight-lipped about their fee structures, it may retrace further toward $0.074, where it closed in August.

For HBAR to realistically approach $0.25, several key developments need to unfold in order. First, HBAR must close above $0.10 each month, the end-of-November level highlighted in our October 17 analysis. It would then need to surpass the September high of $0.131. Additionally, partners like IBM would have to disclose transaction fee information, all while Bitcoin continues to rise and attract investment into altcoins.

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