Ripple’s Swell Conference Is Underway in New York. What Has XRP Done After Past Swells?

Ripple’s Swell event is making waves in New York, aiming to connect traditional finance with the on-chain economy. Scheduled to take place from October 27 to 29, 2026, the event will feature over 80 sessions at The Shed in Manhattan.

Despite these big expectations, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) holders are feeling the pressure. Currently trading at $1.30, XRP has fallen 12.5% in October and nearly 50% over the last year, dipping to $1.25 in the week ending October 25. With this backdrop, many investors are eager for some positive news during Swell.

The event’s activities have already kicked off, with greetings like “Hello New York @RippleSwell” from XRPScan on October 23. Additionally, the XRPL Commons AI and fintech hackathon runs on October 24 and 25, setting the stage for the main event.

XRP Fell in Five of Six Swell Months With Confirmed Dates

Historically, XRP has followed a “sell the news” trend, where traders buy into the excitement before a big event and then sell once it arrives. This pattern has held true during Ripple’s major events, including Swell. Below is a summary of XRP’s performance during past Swell events:

In five of the past six Swell events with confirmed dates, XRP closed the Swell month lower, except for the Dubai event in 2023, which rose slightly by 1.6%. The biggest declines came in 2018 and 2019, when XRP lost over 20% of its value in each Swell month and fell again the following month.

Weekly trends reveal similar patterns. For instance, XRP fell from $2.53 the week before Swell 2025 to $2.37 during the event, marking a 6.4% loss. It also dropped 3.8% during the week of the 2019 Singapore event, while the Dubai Swell saw a marginal gain of 0.2%.

XRP’s Two Big Post-Swell Rallies Came Weeks After the Conference

Interestingly, XRP has rallied significantly after two previous Swell events. In November 2020, one month after the virtual Swell, XRP reached a high of $0.76 and closed at $0.67, although it later plummeted to $0.22 by the end of December.

The rally following the 2024 Miami Swell was bigger. XRP closed at $0.51 in October and surged to $1.94 by the end of November, peaking at $2.84 in December. Both uptrends occurred weeks after the conferences concluded, making it difficult to directly link them to the Swell events.

XRP Has to Clear $1.36 and $1.41 as Swell 2026 Opens

As Swell 2026 kicks off, XRP is trading below two critical moving averages: $1.36 (20-day average) and $1.41 (50-day average). These averages now act as resistance levels where sellers tend to step in.

On the downside, the October low at $1.25 is a crucial support level buyers must hold. XRP has declined throughout the month, trading between $1.56 and $1.25, down 16.9% over the past 30 days. However, it shows a positive trend over the last 90 days, up 22.3% thanks to an August rally that peaked at $1.70.

What Could Ripple Swell 2026 Mean for XRP’s Price?

Historical data suggests XRP may not perform well during Swell week, but its price action in the months that follow is less predictable. Swell events have rarely led to immediate price increases, and previous rallies occurred well after the conference dates.

This year’s Swell 2026 is unique because it includes Ripple’s XRPL Apex developer conference, which could attract more interest and activity to the XRP Ledger. If XRP holds above $1.25 through October 29 and climbs back above $1.36, selling pressure could ease. Conversely, a dip below the October low may trigger a drop similar to what was seen in 2018, 2019, and 2025.

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