Willy Woo’s Simulation Puts Bitcoin at $413,000 in 2028. What Would It Take for BTC to 5x?
Willy Woo ran 10,000 simulations and landed on a Bitcoin price target that would require the market to do something it has not pulled off since the asset was a fraction of its current size. Here is what has to…
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Willy Woo’s Bitcoin simulation suggests Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could reach $241,000 to $413,000 by 2028. Woo notes that this is a simulation, not a prediction. His model ran 10,000 simulations and also projected Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2033 in a median scenario.
Bitcoin is trading at $80,543, up 0.7% over 24 hours. Over the past month, its value has fallen 4.6%, fluctuating between $80,029 on October 26 and $86,490 on October 4. This puts Bitcoin about 36.1% below its all-time high of $126,080, reached on October 6, 2025.
To understand what it would take for BTC to quintuple by 2028, here are the details.
Bitcoin Needs an $8.3 Trillion Market Value to Reach $413,000
If Bitcoin reaches $413,000, its market value would be around $8.3 trillion based on the current supply. On the lower end, reaching $241,000 would put the market cap at about $4.9 trillion, roughly three times its current level of about $1.62 trillion.
These estimates provide just a starting point. Miners produce new coins daily until the total supply hits 21 million. Therefore, buyers must pay for each new coin. Once the supply reaches 21 million, a price of $413,000 would imply a market cap of approximately $8.7 trillion.
Bitcoin’s past price cycles indicate that achieving higher multiples is becoming increasingly difficult. The all-time monthly high was $19,927 in December 2017, followed by $68,770 in November 2021, about 3.5 times the 2017 peak. The 2025 record was only about 1.8 times the 2021 high.
Woo’s lower target of $241,000 reflects a similar increase to the last cycle, at about 1.9 times the 2025 peak. The $413,000 high target requires a jump of about 3.3 times the previous record, a feat Bitcoin hasn’t matched since the significant rise from 2017 to 2021, when the asset’s overall size was much smaller.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Have Stalled Near $57 Billion
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are funds that hold Bitcoin and can be traded like stocks, reported total net assets of $102.8 billion as of October 26, according to SoSoValue. However, cumulative net inflows—total new money added since launch minus withdrawals—have dropped to $57.3 billion.
This amount fell slightly from $57.6 billion on September 28, indicating a net outflow during that period. Starting with $528 million in inflows on October 21, the funds later faced $636 million in withdrawals. Nonetheless, for the week of October 19, they still showed about $305 million in net inflows.
ETFs have previously driven up Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin surged from $34,082 in October 2023 to its record $126,080, a climb that included the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. For Bitcoin to reach an $8.3 trillion market value, inflows would need to significantly exceed the $102.8 billion these funds currently hold, especially as we approach the halving event.
Bitcoin Halvings Have Led to Peaks About 18 Months After the Supply Cut
A halving occurs roughly every four years, cutting the reward for Bitcoin miners in half. The next halving event is anticipated in 2028. After the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin reached an all-time high about 18 months later.
If this pattern holds, we might see the next peak in 2029 or 2030, or, if it happens in 2028, only months after the supply cut, much sooner than the last peak. A pressing question remains: can Bitcoin set a new record before the 2028 halving?
Can Bitcoin Reach $413,000 by 2028?
Bitcoin has a low probability of reaching $413,000 by 2028 and a modest chance of hitting $241,000. The lower target would require Bitcoin to replicate the last cycle’s price multiples, while the upper target would require a surge similar to the 2017 boom, but from a substantially larger market value. First, Bitcoin must overcome the 50-day moving average at $81,806.
After that, it will need to surpass its 30-day high of $86,490 and hit $100,000. Polymarket shows about a 16.5% chance of reaching $100,000 by December 31, and only a 0.5% chance for $250,000. Ultimately, Bitcoin must break its $126,080 record for either target to become viable. A monthly close above this level by December 2027 is crucial; without it, a fivefold increase in value by 2028 seems unlikely.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
