Cardano, Hedera and Avalanche Lost 20% or More in October. Which Could Recover Most by 2027?

Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA), Hedera (CRYPTO: HBAR), and Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX) fell sharply in October 2026, each dropping far more than Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). Over the past month, Cardano dropped 23.1% to $0.19, Hedera fell 30.3% to $0.072, and Avalanche slid 20.7% to around $9, while Bitcoin fell just 7.8%.

The month ended on a tumultuous note when hackers hit Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, on October 29, impacting about $6.3 billion in assets. Binance promptly froze withdrawals but covered 95% of the losses, reopened Avalanche’s C-Chain, and prioritized Cardano among its first networks.

In the bigger picture, all three cryptocurrencies are still far from their 2021 highs, trading between 87% and 94% below those peaks. Each cryptocurrency has also lost over 53% of its value in the past year.

Thus, assessing their early November 2025 prices—when they reached their highest levels in the past 12 months—provides a more realistic benchmark for recovery. So, which of Cardano, Hedera, or Avalanche stands the best chance of recovering by 2027?

How Far Cardano, Hedera and Avalanche Must Climb to Reach 2025 Prices

A cryptocurrency’s market value equals its price multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. Currently, Cardano is valued at about $7.25 billion (18th), Avalanche at about $3.88 billion (28th), and Hedera at about $3.18 billion (32nd).

These market values assume a constant coin count, which may underestimate the required climb since supply continues to grow. As of October 29, approximately 37.57 billion ADA were in circulation, worth about $7.2 billion, out of a total maximum of 45 billion. Each new ADA issued raises the market value Cardano needs to reach $0.61.

What Could Help Cardano, Hedera and Avalanche Recover?

Cardano’s Midnight Chain Sends Fees to a Different Token

Cardano recently introduced a privacy-focused blockchain called Midnight, which operates independently while utilizing some of Cardano’s features. This new chain launched on March 30, and users pay fees in DUST, which is derived from holding NIGHT. Midnight’s growth does not directly increase demand for ADA. In the past 30 days, NIGHT surged 40%, while ADA fell 17.9%.

Cardano’s most promising evidence of recovery comes from past market rallies. In November 2024, ADA rose from $0.34 to $1.08, marking a 218% gain that mirrors the recovery it requires now. However, Bitcoin held a dominant 59.5% share of the crypto market in late October, suggesting most investors still favor Bitcoin over altcoins.

Hedera’s ETF Investors Hold Less Than They Put In

Hedera, governed by a council of major organizations like Boeing and Deutsche Telekom, is facing challenges with its spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which directly hold HBAR. Total net assets in these ETFs dropped from $80 million on October 2 to $56.9 million by October 30.

Cumulative net inflows—representing the total amount invested minus withdrawals—were $113.7 million, meaning the funds now hold about half of what investors originally contributed. Daily movements in these funds have been minimal, featuring a $559,000 outflow on October 16 and only a $107,000 inflow on October 22.

Avalanche Now Powers Japan’s Tourist Tax Refunds

Avalanche is now part of Japan’s tax-free shopping system, which shifted to a refund-based approach on November 1. Visitors now pay full prices at checkout and claim their tax back later. The Japan Tax Free service began issuing refunds in JPYC, a stablecoin tied to the Japanese yen, using Avalanche’s C-Chain and UPBOND for wallet management.

While this program is new and lacks a usage track record, Avalanche has shown impressive momentum, gaining 33.1% over the past 90 days, while ADA slid 0.3% and HBAR increased just 1.9%. Additionally, AVAX currently trades above its 200-day average of $8.

Which of Cardano, Hedera or Avalanche Could Recover Most by 2027?

For Avalanche to regain its 50-day average of $10, it would need to climb 12.1% and ultimately surpass its October 6 close of $12, which is a 32.9% increase. If AVAX stays above $12 for a week, reaching $19 by 2027 looks realistic. Conversely, if the Japan program sees little uptake and AVAX dips below its $8 average (6.5% below), it may fall toward its June 19 low of $6 (32.5% below).

Of the three, Avalanche needs the smallest increase (116%) and has live payments in Japan, along with the strongest 90-day trend. Hedera, needing a 173% gain, might benefit if its ETF assets recover above $80 million. Cardano faces the biggest challenge, needing a 218% increase, compounded by the separate demand Midnight generated. For a glimmer of hope, Cardano needs to close a week above $0.27 (40% above). Based on these factors, Avalanche appears to have the best chance of recovery by 2027, followed by Hedera and then Cardano.

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