Bitcoin Cash Fell 14% This Week, Five Times Bitcoin’s Drop. Where Does BCH Find Support?
A CME futures headline sent Bitcoin Cash soaring in September, and the coin has since surrendered every gain and then some. Buyers defended one price level before, and traders are now watching to see whether they will show up again.
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Bitcoin Cash (CRYPTO:BCH) fell 14.6% this week, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) fell less, down just 3.3%. BCH is at $242.73, down 5.6% in 24 hours and below its lowest close in the previous 30 days, $249.42 on November 7.
BCH has also given back the surge that followed a futures announcement from CME Group (NASDAQ:CME | CME Price Prediction). The coin jumped 30% on that news, closing at $344.97 on September 22. Now BCH is down 59.5% this year and trades 93.6% below its all-time high of $3,785.82 from December 19, 2017. So why is BCH falling so much more than Bitcoin, and where might buyers step in?
CME Futures Rally That Fizzled Out Before Launch Day
In September, CME Group announced it would launch Bitcoin Cash futures, letting traders lock in a price now to buy or sell BCH later. The contracts began trading on October 19. Investors piled in on the news, but many started selling before the launch, a pattern known as “sell the news.”
BCH closed at $306.13 on September 30 and had dropped to $270.96 by October 8, well before the futures went live. The launch brought no fresh boost either. BCH closed at $275.98 on October 18, and its late-October closes ranged from $273.42 on October 29 to $295.76 on October 27.
Futures also give large traders a regulated way to short BCH, taking a position that profits when the price falls. CME said it added the contracts because of “strong client demand for institutional-grade risk management tools,” and managing risk often means hedging against a drop. That new two-way market, combined with fading excitement after the news, may explain why BCH keeps meeting selling pressure.
Tech stocks also sold off sharply on November 5 after a Democratic sweep in the midterm elections, which commentator Steve Weiss said could put a lid on AI spending. Separately, Binance suspended withdrawals after a security issue it disclosed on October 30, but its notice named no specific coins and gives no sign of a link to Bitcoin Cash.
Bitcoin Cash Breaks Below Its October Support Levels
BCH trades below its 20-day moving average of $279.05, its 50-day average of $290.54, and its 200-day average of $278.57. Trading below all three points, indicating a downtrend across short, medium, and long time frames. Still, the 50-day average remains above the 200-day, so the longer-term trend hasn’t fully reversed yet.
BCH set its October low at $265.47 on October 12, before rebounding to $274.01. It then held closes between $268.32 and $277.95 through October 18. Those repeated bounces created a support level, a price zone where buyers have stepped in before.
However, sellers broke that zone on November 6, when BCH closed at $263.61, and pushed it to $249.42 on November 7. Once support breaks, it often turns into resistance, where sellers emerge as prices try to rise again. So the range between the October low and the 200-day average may cap any rebound.
Looking lower, the next major support is $216.74, the September 15 close and the lowest close since the start of September. Buyers defended it strongly, driving BCH up to $255.35 by September 18, before the CME announcement. Below that are the 90-day low of $203.50 from August 18 and the one-year low of $190.35 from June 24.
Why Bitcoin Cash Fell More Than Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana
In the same week, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) dropped only 2% to $2,228, while Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) lost 5.9% to $88.95. With Monero and TRON the only top-20 coins up on the week, BCH’s 14.6% slide stands out even in a weak market.
Bitcoin Cash ranks No. 21 by market cap, while Bitcoin holds the No. 1 spot and Ethereum No. 2. Smaller cryptocurrencies like BCH often have thinner order books- the lists of buy and sell offers on exchanges- so the same amount of selling has a larger impact on price. That fits a market where Bitcoin’s dominance keeps growing as investors move away from smaller coins.
BCH’s September surge also came from a single headline, which left more room to fall than coins that rose on broad interest. Many BCH holders are deep in the red, too, with the price down 59.5% this year, against Bitcoin’s 13.5% decline, Ethereum’s 25% and Solana’s 28.6%. That many losing holders often means sellers looking to exit near breakeven whenever prices rise.
Can Bitcoin Cash Hold Above Its September Support?
It’s possible, but a lasting floor depends on demand that hasn’t shown up yet. The CME listing was expected to bring institutional money into BCH, but the price since October 19 shows no sign of that buying. Until it appears, the only level buyers have proven they’ll defend is the September one.
There’s a clear line in each direction. If BCH closes back above the October 12 low of $265.47, the November drop starts to look like an overshoot, and the 200-day average of $278.57 comes back into reach. A daily close below September 15’s $216.74 would mean the CME rally is fully gone, and the $203.50 and $190.35 lows become the next test.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
