A Whale Sold $104 Million of Solana in 5 Days. Is the Selling Done?

An on-chain tracker, Lookonchain, reported that a single wallet sold 1.02 million SOL, worth $104.3 million, over five days ending today. In the crypto world, a holder with that much cryptocurrency is often called a whale, as their actions can significantly impact the market. On top of that, Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) was already trending down when this wallet began selling.

Solana was trading at $102, up 0.7% over the past 24 hours but down 14.6% over the last 30 days. This drop is notably sharper than Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO:BTC) 3.2% decline in the same timeframe. Moreover, SOL closed at a 30-day low of $101 on October 26. So, has the whale’s selling come to an end?

A Whale’s Sale Met Steady Buyers

While Lookonchain provided figures on the whale’s sales, it didn’t clarify how much SOL remains in that wallet or whether the sold coins were transferred to an exchange. This information is crucial, as coins sent to exchanges often end up being sold on the market, which could increase the supply that buyers need to absorb.

Interestingly, the price movements during the selling period were calmer than one might expect. From October 24 to October 28, SOL’s daily closing price never fell below $101, and the coin ended the period at $102. This suggests buyers absorbed the whale’s supply without triggering a major price drop, at least so far.

ETF Outflows Increase While Adoption News Is Overlooked

A second wave of sellers emerged from Wall Street products. Spot ETFs, funds that trade on stock exchanges and hold actual SOL, saw outflows. On October 27, Solana spot ETFs saw withdrawals totaling $19.2 million, followed by another $5.7 million on October 28, according to reports from Farside.

All outflows on October 28 came from the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (NYSEARCA:BSOL). Despite this exit, the fund still maintained over $1 billion in net assets, making the withdrawal relatively minor compared to its overall size. Consecutive days of outflows signal that ETF investors did not step in to offset the whale’s sales.

Meanwhile, good news about Solana was largely ignored. Ondo migrated all seven of its Ondo Intelligent Portfolios to Solana for eligible non-US investors, with three portfolios based on strategies from BlackRock (NYSE:BLK). In just four weeks, these portfolios attracted over $40 million in total value locked from Ethereum and BNB Chain.

Additionally, Polygon launched Open Money Stack for Solana businesses, offering essential banking features through a single API. Jupiter also launched an institutional validator with BitGo, allowing BitGo clients to stake SOL without moving it out of custody. Adoption news generally builds demand over time, which may be why the market hasn’t reacted strongly yet.

SOL Trades Below Short-Term Averages While Bitcoin Remains Resilient

Traders often use moving averages, which indicate the average closing price over a set period, to assess trends. SOL is trading below its 20-day average of $105 and 50-day average of $109, but it still exceeds its 200-day average of $89. This suggests a short-term downward trend, while the long-term outlook remains stable.

However, buyers have stepped in at certain price points, creating what traders call “support.” The initial support level for SOL is at $99, followed by the next at $98.51. The low close of $101 on October 26 was very close to that first support level, showing how much selling pressure has already hit SOL.

The performance of SOL’s peers also contributes to this decline. Over 30 days, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) fell 12.2%, closely mirroring SOL’s drop, while Bitcoin lost only 3.2%. Over the past week, SOL dropped 1.8%, Ethereum 1.5%, and Bitcoin 0.4%, indicating a consistent trend.

SOL’s smaller market cap compared to Bitcoin helps explain the discrepancy. SOL ranks seventh in market capitalization, at about $60 billion against Bitcoin’s $1.63 trillion, so a $104.3 million sale leaves a bigger dent. SOL also hit a one-year low of $62 on June 6 and has since risen 39.7% over 90 days, so some of the selling could be holders cashing out profits, pressure that might outlast the whale.

Is the Whale’s Selling Finished?

The evidence does not suggest the selling has ended yet. Although SOL bounced back to $102, we need a clear indication of the whale’s remaining balance, a reversal of ETF flows back to inflows, and improved demand from recent adoption news. As of now, the wallet’s remaining balance remains unverified, and outflows have continued for two consecutive days.

Buyers absorbed the whale’s supply while SOL stayed above $100, indicating demand at the current price. But absorbing supply and driving the price higher are different things, and SOL has not yet recovered its 20-day average. A close below $99, then $98.51, would suggest selling pressure remains active. A close above $105 alongside Solana ETFs logging inflows would mean the exit is absorbed, with fresh buyers behind the bounce.

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