Bitcoin’s Mining Difficulty Is Set for a 6.4% Drop. Are Miners Switching Off at $74,000?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) mining difficulty could drop 6.4% at the next network adjustment, according to an estimate from mempool.space dated November 9, 2026. This retargeting is expected to occur at block 975,744, which is currently 563 blocks away. Based on the network’s target of a 10-minute block time, these blocks will take roughly 3.9 days, with the estimate adjusting as block times fluctuate.

Bitcoin trades at $75,034, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours. During the session, it dipped to $73,636. Over the past month, the price has dropped 9.2%, marking a fifth straight week of losses.

A drop in mining difficulty often leads traders to believe miners are shutting down operations because Bitcoin isn’t covering their electricity costs. However, Binance is set to close its mining pool at 07:00 UTC on November 10. So, are miners disconnecting their rigs at $74,000, or is something smaller driving this drop in Bitcoin mining difficulty?

A 6.4% Drop Would Be Bitcoin’s Largest Difficulty Decrease Since June

Mining difficulty determines how challenging it is to discover a new block. The network adjusts this every 2,016 blocks, roughly every two weeks, to ensure that new blocks continue to be produced about every 10 minutes. When miners turn off their machines, block creation slows, prompting the next reset to lower mining difficulty.

The total computing power that miners contribute to the network, or hashrate, is measured in exahashes per second (EH/s). Currently, mempool.space estimates the hashrate at approximately 963 EH/s, slightly below the seven-day average of about 969 EH/s. The three-day average has fallen to about 903 EH/s, suggesting some machines have been powered down in recent days.

Traders remain alert for signs of miner capitulation, which occurs when miners stop running their hardware because it costs more to operate than they earn. This is often seen as a late-stage indicator, as weaker miners have typically already sold their coins and exited the industry, leaving behind only the more stable players.

However, the most recent major drop doesn’t fully follow that pattern. In June, mining difficulty dropped by 10.1%, yet Bitcoin continued to decline, reaching a one-year low of $58,566 by the end of June. The June reduction helped ease pressure on miners before Bitcoin eventually found a stable price.

Binance Pool’s Closure Is Too Small to Account for the Drop

Most of this estimated difficulty reduction offsets the previous adjustment, which increased difficulty by 5.5%. Miners faced a tougher challenge as Bitcoin’s price declined, and blocks have arrived more slowly since.

Binance Pool’s impact is minimal. According to mempool.space, it only mined 1 out of the 919 blocks on the network in the past week and just 31 out of 4,535 over the past month, making up less than 1% of total blocks. Miners who leave Binance can easily redirect their machines to other pools, meaning their computing power remains in the network.

Mempool.space also estimates hashrate based on block arrival times, which can vary with random chance. Thus, a few slow days can look like a shutdown even when machines remain operational.

Miners Are Selling Coins as Bitcoin Trades Below Production Costs

Miner profit margins are tightening, with Bitcoin trading about 3.8% below the $78,000 production cost we estimated in September. This means that higher-cost miners are losing money on every Bitcoin they mine. For example, Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT | RIOT Price Prediction) sold 79% of its Bitcoin in the last quarter, while Hut 8 (NASDAQ: HUT) sold 3,102 BTC, amounting to around $233 million at current prices.

Despite this selling pressure, investors seem unfazed. Miner stocks rose on November 6, with Riot gaining 13.2%, Bitdeer Technologies (NASDAQ: BTDR) climbing 13.3%, MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) up 8.1%, and CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) up 8.5%. MARA is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings report after the market closes on November 9, which could provide further insight into the anticipated supply from miners.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Affect Prices More Than Miner Sales

Miners traditionally sell large amounts of Bitcoin each quarter, worth hundreds of millions of dollars. However, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which hold Bitcoin for stock-market investors, can experience outflows of that magnitude within a single day. Recent data from SoSoValue indicates that these funds had net outflows of $430.2 million on November 5 and $411.9 million on November 6, following $643.3 million in outflows on October 30.

Cumulative net inflows for these ETFs fell to $55.7 billion on November 6 from $58 billion on October 21, suggesting that ETF investors have been net sellers for several weeks. Larger buyers have been ready to absorb miner sales in the past, as seen when whales purchased 15,000 Bitcoin in just three days, even as MARA sold $81 million worth of Bitcoin without confirming the sale date.

Hashrate measurements also have blind spots, as they count machines rather than actual purchases. Most Bitcoin trading happens within exchange order books and doesn’t show up on-chain, so a quiet chain looks the same whether investors are accumulating or standing still.

Bitcoin currently trades 2.5% above its 200-day moving average of $73,177 but 5% below its 20-day average of $79,005 and 8.2% below its 50-day average of $81,760, suggesting sellers still control short-term trends, especially as the price trades below these shorter averages.

Are miners turning off rigs at $74,000, or are other dynamics affecting Bitcoin’s mining difficulty?

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