Bitcoin at $73,600 Is Below Strategy’s Average Cost. How Long Can Saylor Go Without Selling?
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is priced at $73,227, down $2,229 (3%) from the $75,456 average cost per coin that Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction) paid. According to its November 9 8-K filing with the SEC, Strategy acquired 850,364 BTC for a total of $64.16 billion. Those coins are currently valued at about $62.3 billion, and the company also maintains a cash reserve of $4.77 billion.
In the last 30 days, Bitcoin has dropped by 12.5%, eliminating any cushion above Strategy’s average cost. Meanwhile, Strategy’s stock trades at $125.95, remaining relatively stable after a recent decline in cryptocurrency stocks on November 9.
On that day, Strategy revealed on X that its USD assets are sufficient to cover 3.4 years of annual interest and dividends, up from just 0.5 years at the end of May. With Bitcoin now trading below Strategy’s average cost, how long can Executive Chairman Michael Saylor hold without selling, and what impact does this situation have on Bitcoin’s price?
Strategy’s 3.4 Years of Cover Pays Interest and Dividends Only
The 3.4-year figure shows it can meet obligations without selling Bitcoin. The cash reserve is allocated toward two main expenses: interest payments on its convertible notes and dividends on its five preferred stocks. The preferred dividends alone cost $419.6 million in the third quarter.
The company’s software division is struggling to cover these costs, reporting revenue of $125.4 million last quarter, down from the previous year. Additionally, Strategy has raised $21.23 billion so far in 2026 from gradual stock offerings. This year, the company also sold $432 million worth of Bitcoin.
However, selling Bitcoin below its average cost is not necessary. Saylor has indicated that Strategy has no “covenants or triggers” linked to its purchase price, meaning it is not obligated to sell at a loss. CEO Phong Le told analysts that “Bitcoin could fall 78% to $18,000 before we are 1x covered for our liabilities.”
Stock Buybacks Could Shorten Strategy’s 3.4-Year Runway
The 3.4-year timeframe assumes expenses remain stable. Former CFO Andrew Kang called it a measure of “current payment obligations,” but the company tends to spend beyond that. This includes $2.04 billion spent on repurchasing STRC, one of its preferred stocks, with $956.7 million still available for buybacks. Strategy plans to continue these buybacks as long as STRC remains below its $100 face value.
Saylor has committed that “if STRC falls off of par or breaks below par, then the company is going to use all of its capital and its best efforts to return it to par as soon as it can.” These buybacks are funded from the same reserves that cover dividends, meaning every dollar spent on buybacks shortens the time frame it can avoid selling Bitcoin.
Debt Put Dates and an MSCI Decision Could Squeeze Strategy’s Funding
The strategy’s debt obligations are due later, with about $6.7 billion in convertible debt listed in the third quarter, including $1.05 billion considered current. Kang explained that holders of two notes trading below par can demand repayment as early as March 2028, and holders of the 2029 notes can do so on June 1, 2028.
MSCI is expected to decide by November 11 whether to remove Strategy from its indexes, which could trigger a sell-off of MSTR shares by index funds. While these funds would sell shares and not Strategy’s Bitcoin, a weaker stock price complicates efforts to raise cash. Le’s plan to fund dividends relies on issuing stock while the company’s market value stays above the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
S&P has rated Strategy at B-, placing it firmly in the junk category. An upgrade to BBB- or better would let funds limited to safer debt invest in its bonds. Both the 8-K filing and the post on X do not completely rule out Bitcoin sales, and the board has already authorized up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin sales for the reserve.
Does Strategy’s Cash Cushion Help Bitcoin’s Price?
The cash reserves primarily protect Strategy, not Bitcoin’s value. While this reserve reduces the risk of selling Bitcoin to cover dividends, it does little to spur new buying. In Q3, Strategy acquired a net of only 1,666 BTC, and in early November, it spent more on buybacks than on Bitcoin purchases, despite hints from Saylor about potential new buys.
Based on Strategy’s current estimates, Saylor can hold for about 3.4 years without selling Bitcoin to meet obligations. However, stock buybacks or potential exclusion from the index could shorten this timeline. If the upcoming 8-K report shows Bitcoin holdings below 850,364 BTC, or if this year’s sales exceed $432 million, this protective buffer may start to erode.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
