XRP Price Prediction: How Low Could XRP Go if It Closes Below $1?
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XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) dropped below $1 in early trading today, hitting an intraday low of around $0.996 before buyers stepped in and pushed the price to $1.04. XRP trades at $1.02 this morning, with a total market value of $64.9 billion.
The recent decline has been significant, with XRP down 13.4% over the past week, 18.6% over the last two weeks, and 23.3% over the past month. XRP also trades 72% below its all-time high of $3.65 from July 17, 2025, and below all three of its key moving averages, with the 20-day average at $1.21, the 50-day at $1.34, and the 200-day at $1.26.
Fund investors have also been selling, as U.S. spot XRP funds had $18 million in net outflows over the four trading days through November 12. So if XRP closes below $1 for a full day, how low could it go?
XRP’s First Support Below $1 Is the August 2026 Low
The first support level is close. XRP closed at $0.9927 on August 16, its lowest daily close of the year, with a market value of $62.2 billion at the time. Buyers heavily defended that level, and XRP rose to $1.45 by August 21 during a rally in Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), which moved from $62,844 to $78,318 over the same period.
Bitcoin and XRP generally move in tandem, as discussed in our analysis of XRP’s correlation with Bitcoin. Earlier this year, however, XRP held up better. On June 30, when Bitcoin hit its lowest close of the past year at $58,566, XRP still closed at $1.04. Now, with Bitcoin higher at $68,519, XRP is lower, so it’s weaker against Bitcoin than during the June scare over its $1 support.
If XRP drops below $0.99, the next significant historical marker is much older. On November 14, 2023, XRP traded at 63 cents, before a rally in late 2024, and falling back to that level could erase its 62.2% gain over the past three years.
Additionally, supply dilution makes it more challenging to hold price levels. As new coins enter circulation, the same price represents a larger overall market value. XRP closed at $1.04 on June 25 with a market cap of $64.9 billion, and at that same price on November 12 with a market cap of $66.1 billion, meaning buyers need to invest more to hold the same price.
What Would Have to Happen for XRP to Hold $1
Bitcoin Needs to Stabilize
Bitcoin trades at $68,519, down 4.1% in 24 hours and at its lowest point since August 18, when it closed at $64,686. A recovery above its 30-day low close of $71,372 could signal easing selling pressure.
XRP Funds Need to Pull In Money Again
Net assets in U.S. spot XRP funds fell from $1.51 billion on October 14 to $1.16 billion on November 12. The most substantial selling came on November 9, with $10.4 million exiting, and another $7.6 million left on November 10. The funds had no net flows on November 11 and 12, so a full week of net inflows would suggest that buyers are returning.
The Fed Must Avoid Surprises on December 9
According to CME FedWatch, there is an 88.7% chance of a quarter-point rate hike on December 9. Higher interest rates usually make cash and bonds more attractive, pulling money out of crypto investments. Since traders already expect the hike, it could do limited damage, but any indication of more rate hikes could further pressure XRP.
How Low Could XRP Go if It Closes Below $1?
In our view, a daily close below $1 looks more likely than not, especially with the August low of $0.9927 offering little support. If that level breaks, XRP has no closer historical support than 63 cents from late 2023. For $1 to hold as support, Bitcoin likely needs to reclaim $71,372, XRP needs a week of inflows, and the Fed must avoid any unexpected announcements on December 9.
Even then, XRP will need to recover its 20-day average of $1.21 before any price movement looks like more than a temporary bounce. A daily close below $0.99 would confirm a downward trend, while a close above $1.21 accompanied by fund inflows would signal a potential recovery. For holders planning to ride out a break, our review of how long XRP takes to recover from a crash lays out past timelines.
XRP Price FAQ
How Low Will XRP Fall?
XRP’s nearest support below $1 is its August 2026 low close of $0.9927. If that level fails, the next significant point is 63 cents from November 2023.
Will XRP Go Back Up?
XRP did bounce back after testing its August support, rising to $1.45 by August 21 alongside Bitcoin’s gains. A repeat would likely require Bitcoin to rebound and XRP funds to start attracting money again.
Is XRP Dead?
No. XRP remains the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap at $64.9 billion and has gained 62.2% over three years.
Why Is XRP Dropping?
The drop is driven by Bitcoin’s decline, ongoing money exits from XRP funds and traders’ expectations of a Fed rate hike. Over the past year, XRP has fallen 56%, compared with Bitcoin’s 31.1% decline.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
