Can Solana Overtake XRP in Market Value by 2027?
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Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) ranks seventh in market value at about $42.1 billion, one position and nearly $18.6 billion behind XRP (CRYPTO:XRP), which has a market value of around $60.7 billion. Both cryptocurrencies have seen significant declines.
Solana is trading at about $71, down 32% over the past month, after falling from a $107 close on October 21 to a $70 close on November 14, its lowest close of the month.
Meanwhile, XRP is down 27.3% over the same 30 days to around 96 cents. With only one spot separating the two coins, many investors are eager to know whether Solana can surpass XRP in market value by 2027.
Solana Needs to Reach Around $103 to Match XRP’s Market Value
Market value, or market cap, is calculated by multiplying a cryptocurrency’s price by the number of coins in circulation. Given the current supply, Solana needs to rise to about $103, roughly 44% above its present price, to match XRP’s market value. This target aligns with Solana’s 50-day moving average, which reflects the average closing price over the last 50 days.
Solana has exceeded this price point earlier this year, closing at $122 on September 25, its highest close in 90 days, and at $147 on January 14, its one-year high.
However, the target price keeps changing as both coins add supply. Ripple, the company behind XRP, gradually releases coins from escrow, while Solana generates new coins as rewards for stakers who secure the network by locking up their SOL. So new SOL pulls the $103 match price down, while new XRP pushes it up. Our look at XRP and Solana getting back to their all-time highs lays out both sources of new supply.
If XRP Hits $2, Solana Must Reach About $215 to Match It
XRP could gain value while Solana tries to catch up. Our look at what it would take for XRP to get back to $2 in 2027 found that XRP needs to rise about 109%, and that piece called the chances low. At current supply, $2 would give XRP a market value of around $127 billion.
If XRP does reach $2, the match price for Solana rises to roughly $215, more than double the $103 target. However, if XRP stays below $1, Solana only needs to reclaim prices it already hit in September.
Fund Flows, Breakpoint and RLUSD May Determine the Outcome
ETF Outflows Impact Solana More
A spot ETF (exchange-traded fund) directly holds the cryptocurrency. Data from SoSoValue shows that U.S. spot Solana funds saw outflows of $32.1 million from November 9 to 13, while U.S. spot XRP funds lost $19.1 million during the same period. Solana funds saw outflows on all five trading days, while XRP funds had zero net flow on two days.
Despite these losses, both groups of funds hold similar amounts, with $1.14 billion in the Solana funds and $1.15 billion in the XRP funds as of November 13. However, XRP leads in total net inflows, having attracted $1.79 billion compared to Solana’s $1.41 billion.
Breakpoint and DTCC Give Solana Dated Catalysts
Solana’s annual conference, Breakpoint, takes place from today, November 15, to 17 in London. A more significant event is set for 2027, when the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which handles most U.S. stock trades, plans to introduce tokenized securities on the Solana network. Our analysis of whether Solana could hit $500 by 2028 also looked at that launch.
However, large movements by big holders remain a concern. For instance, a wallet transferred 1,882,812 SOL, roughly $134 million, to Coinbase Global’s institutional arm (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) on November 14. Forward Industries (NASDAQ:FORD), which holds SOL in its treasury, clarified that the coins did not belong to it. Large deposits to exchanges can come before selling.
Ripple’s RLUSD Could Complicate Solana’s Quest
Ripple’s RLUSD, a stablecoin pegged to $1, has a supply of roughly $2.8 billion. Despite this, XRP has declined 47.9% this year. If payment activity on Ripple’s network drives demand for XRP, it may be harder for Solana to close the gap. Our look at whether XRP can overtake Ethereum by 2030 tests that same payments argument.
Can Solana Overtake XRP in Market Value by 2027?
While it seems unlikely for Solana to surpass XRP by 2027, the narrow gap between them means that one strong quarter could turn things around. Solana first needs to close back above its 50-day moving average near $103. Then ETF inflows into Solana must replace the $32.1 million outflow, and XRP must remain below $1 while the DTCC launch brings new activity.
The clearest indicator of a switch in standings would be a Solana close above $103 while XRP stays under $1. Conversely, should the ETF outflows continue, Solana may slide toward its one-year low close of $62 from June 6, about 13% lower. On the XRP side, its 30-day low of 91 cents, about 5% lower, is the level to watch.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
