Will Solana Hit $500 by 2028?

For Solana to reach $500 by the end of 2028, SOL (CRYPTO: SOL) would need to rise roughly 5.3 times from its current level and finish more than 70% above its January 2025 peak of $293. This is a challenging feat, especially after SOL dropped 19.3% in October 2026, hitting a 30-day low of $92.

SOL is trading at $95, about 68% below its record high. Still, $500 often comes up in Solana price discussions, as it represents a major milestone well above the old high. This article focuses on the near-term outlook and explores whether SOL can reach this ambitious target before 2029.

At $500, Solana Would Surpass Ethereum

Reaching $500 would lift Solana’s market value to about $295 billion, exceeding Ethereum’s (CRYPTO: ETH) current value of about $277 billion. However, for SOL to reach this level, it would also need to surpass XRP (CRYPTO: XRP), as well as BNB and Tether, before overtaking Ethereum.

The growing supply of Solana tokens also makes this target harder to reach. Solana continuously rewards stakers—those who lock up SOL to support the network—which increases supply each year. Consequently, if SOL hits $500 by 2028, its market value would likely exceed $295 billion, reflecting the larger token supply.

With roughly 2.2 years remaining until the end of 2028, SOL needs to gain about 116% per year, compounded, to rise from $95 to $500.

What Could Propel Solana Toward $500?

Solana ETFs Need Investors to Return

For Solana ETFs—funds investing directly in SOL and trading like stocks—returning capital from investors could be crucial. Recently, these ETFs saw a significant outflow, losing $71.5 million in the week ending October 30 and reducing their total holdings to $1.4 billion. Investors withdrew money every day during that week, peaking at $27.7 million on October 29.

Since October 2, total net inflows have decreased from $1.6 billion to $1.5 billion. Meanwhile, whales transferred $111 million worth of SOL to the institutional arm of Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) on October 31.

Alpenglow Has Yet to Lift SOL’s Price

Solana’s major Alpenglow upgrade went live on October 21, revamping the network’s consensus system to improve transaction finality. The goal is to reduce the wait time from 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds. However, despite the upgrade, SOL has dropped about 11% from around $107 on launch day.

This price decline suggests the upgrade has yet to positively impact its value, and validator votes, which no longer count as transactions, could lower reported transaction numbers despite stable network usage.

A Bitcoin Rally Could Carry SOL Higher

Solana’s price tends to reflect Bitcoin’s movements, so a sustained rally in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC)—currently trading at $78,050, around 38% below its October 2025 high of $126,080—could boost SOL’s chances of reaching $500. Over the past 90 days, SOL gained 29.9% while Bitcoin increased by 22.1%. However, over the past year, SOL has dropped 48.7%, compared to a 29.6% decline in Bitcoin.

What Could Keep Solana Below $150?

In a bearish scenario, SOL could remain below $150 through 2028. The current trading price sits under its 20-day average of $103 and its 50-day average of $109. Trading below these averages indicates a downward trend.

SOL last exceeded $150 in November 2025, peaking at $189. This could happen if ETF outflows persist, Bitcoin fails to recover its all-time high, and the Alpenglow upgrade doesn’t attract new users. All it takes is for recent trends to continue.

Can Solana Reach $500 by 2028?

Overall, the chances of SOL reaching $500 by the end of 2028 appear slim. Before seriously considering this target, SOL must first recover its 50-day average of $109, break through $150, and reclaim its $293 all-time high. Meanwhile, it would need to surpass Ethereum’s current market value.

Monitoring ETF investments will provide valuable insight. If total net inflows rise above October’s peak of $1.6 billion and SOL closes a month above $150 before the end of 2027, the $500 target could become reachable. Conversely, if SOL remains under $150 at the close of 2027, it may instead hold a more conservative range between October’s low of $92 and $150 for 2028.

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