Does Ripple Selling 1 Billion XRP a Month Lower the Price?

Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) from its escrow today, but the XRP price barely budged. Escrow refers to time-locked contracts that hold tokens until a specified date. On-chain trackers reported that the release occurred at around midnight UTC, divided into two transactions of 500 million XRP each. By mid-morning UTC, Ripple had not locked any of the new tokens back up, which left the escrow balance at approximately 30.4 billion XRP.

As of November 1, XRP trades at $1.25, a slight decline of 0.2% over the previous 24 hours. Before the unlock, XRP fell below $1.20 on October 30 and remains well below its peak of $3.65 in July 2025.

Over the past month, XRP has fallen 17%. In comparison, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) declined by 16%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) fell by just 8%. Some holders anticipate a “dump” with each unlock, as one popular post on Binance Square notes. To investigate this claim, 24/7 Wall St. analyzed five years of data around the release weeks.

Ripple Returns Most of Its Monthly XRP Unlock to Escrow

In 2017, Ripple locked 55 billion XRP in escrow to clarify how much new supply would be released each month. Each monthly unlock releases 1 billion XRP, and Ripple typically reinserts any unused tokens into a new escrow contract. This is why the escrow balance has only decreased to 30.4 billion XRP despite years of monthly unlocks.

Once unlocked, the XRP belongs to Ripple, allowing them to sell, utilize, or re-lock the tokens. Historically, Ripple has returned most of each unlock back to escrow, often on the same day, according to Whale Alert, which tracks such transfers. However, as of this morning UTC, Ripple had yet to re-lock the November tokens, meaning that the entire 1 billion XRP is counted as released supply until a re-lock occurs.

The XRP that Ripple retains helps fund a company that generates most of its revenue through other avenues. Ripple Payments facilitates cross-border transactions for banks and fintech companies, while Ripple Custody manages digital assets for institutions. Additionally, Ripple USD (CRYPTO:RLUSD), its dollar-backed stablecoin, generates interest on its reserves. Ripple Prime, a prime brokerage service, gives hedge funds and trading firms a unified account for equities, forex, futures, and digital assets.

Notably, in late October, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) granted final approval for Ripple National Trust Bank, bringing RLUSD under its oversight. Nevertheless, XRP primarily functions in Ripple Payments as a bridge currency, briefly swapped by banks to transfer value between two other currencies. As a result, payment firms often sell XRP quickly, leaving little incentive for buyers to hold it.

The XRP Price Has Moved the Same in Release Weeks Since 2021

24/7 Wall St. analyzed XRP price movements from the daily close before each monthly release to the close six days later, covering 58 release events from January 2021 to October 2026. On average, the price increased by 1.4% during release weeks; however, XRP fell in 31 of the 58 weeks, or 53% of the time.

In contrast, every seven-day period generally saw an average increase of 1.6%, with 54% of those weeks ending lower. This suggests release weeks behaved like any other week, aligning with the trend of Ripple mostly returning unlocked tokens to escrow.

While price changed significantly in both directions, the strongest gains occurred during weeks when the unlock happened as scheduled. This suggests that if the unlock truly caused the price to drop, XRP’s best week in the past five years likely wouldn’t have coincided with the April 2021 release week.

Ripple Stopped Publishing How Much XRP It Sells

The release data does not disclose how much XRP Ripple sells, which is critical information for many holders. Ripple previously issued quarterly XRP Markets Reports detailing its sales, but in May 2025, the company switched to providing updates on its holdings through its blog and social media. Consequently, current sales figures as a share of XRP’s trading volume are not available.

Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple’s CEO at the time, explained this shift was due to the lawsuit Ripple fought with the SEC. He noted, “As some may remember, the objective of publishing these reports starting in 2017 was transparency into Ripple’s holdings of XRP, which unfortunately was then used against us by the SEC and others.” As a result, holders now have less information on Ripple’s sales than they did before 2025.

Additionally, Ripple has not disclosed the buyer for the November tokens, any sale amounts, or identified customers requiring the use of XRP. Notably, XRP’s price declined before the unlock, as its two busiest trading days in the past month were October 29 and October 30, before any tokens were released from escrow; Bitcoin and Ethereum also dropped during that time.

Does Ripple’s Monthly Unlock Lower the XRP Price?

No, it doesn’t seem to. Over the past five years, XRP has behaved the same way during release weeks as it does during any other weeks. The monthly unlock gives Ripple a steady, predictable supply of tokens that it can sell or use for its various products. While current XRP holders don’t gain much from these unlocks, price movements during these weeks have shown no significant deviations from overall market trends.

The bigger question lies in Ripple’s undisclosed sales figures. If Ripple retained a larger portion of each unlock than usual, the amount in escrow could drop by nearly 1 billion XRP each month. This change would likely be reflected in the ledger before Ripple officially announces anything. If escrow still shows 30.4 billion XRP by the end of November, it would suggest that Ripple kept the full unlock. In that case, an unusually steep drop in price during a release week—much sharper than what Bitcoin might experience—could indicate a shift in the established five-year trend.

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