The Fed Decides on October 28. Fidelity’s Dividend ETF for Rising Rates Returned 19.12% Over the Past Year Against JEPI’s 7.17%.
With the Fed's October 28 rate decision days away, JEPI holders face a pointed question: does Fidelity's dividend fund built for rising rates deserve a spot in the portfolio instead, and what five years of real returns reveal may surprise…
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Owners of the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (NYSEARCA:JEPI) are asking whether to shift ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting. The rate decision comes when the meeting ends. As of Saturday morning, October 24, Polymarket traders put no change at 94.5% and a quarter-point hike at 5.5%, and saw a cut as highly unlikely. Over the past year, the Fidelity Dividend ETF for Rising Rates (NYSEARCA:FDRR) returned 19.12%. JEPI returned 7.17%, leaving a gap of 11.95 points.
What Traders Expect From the October 28 Decision
The Fed raised rates at its September meeting, and that move is why this week’s decision is getting so much attention. Here is how Polymarket priced each result on the morning of October 24:
- No change: 94.5%
- 25 basis point hike: 5.5%
- Hike of 50 basis points or more: 0.3%
- 25 basis point cut: 0.2%
- Cut of 50 basis points or more: 0.1%
Economists lean the same way. Reuters reported on October 20 that 94 of 100 economists in its poll expected the Fed to hold in October, and nearly all expected another increase in December. Keep in mind that a prediction market price shows where traders have put real money. The Fed makes no such forecast, and those prices can move before Wednesday.
Fidelity’s Fund Leads Over One Year, Year to Date and Five Years
All figures assume distributions were reinvested and run through the Friday, October 23 close. Both funds in each pair share the same start date.
| Period | FDRR | JEPI | FDRR Lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| One year (from October 23, 2025) | 19.12% | 7.17% | 11.95 points |
| Year to date | 14.68% | 5.45% | 9.23 points |
| Five years (from October 22, 2021) | 80.65% | 41.22% | 39.43 points |
The five-year row shows what that gap means in dollars. A $100,000 position in the Fidelity fund grew to $180,650, while the same amount in JEPI grew to $141,220. A JEPI owner who reinvested every payout still ended up well behind.
The most recent month went the other way. JEPI returned 1.09% while FDRR was flat at 0%. A single month doesn’t change the longer record, but it shows the lead isn’t constant.
What “Rising Rates” in Fidelity’s Name Describes
Fidelity says the fund’s index is designed to track large- and mid-cap dividend-paying companies. It also says the fund targets higher-yielding stocks with a positive correlation to rising Treasury yields. It adds up to a stock screen. It doesn’t promise anything about a Fed decision. No available figures tie either fund’s returns to interest rates. A fund’s name says nothing about how it will perform in any rate environment, so a hike this week offers no reason to expect a boost for FDRR.
JPMorgan describes JEPI as a defensive large-cap stock portfolio paired with written out-of-the-money S&P 500 call options, an approach meant to generate monthly income. According to Morningstar, the options exposure is packaged through equity-linked notes.
Why Monthly Income Owners May Keep JEPI
JEPI pays monthly. Part of that income comes from the options strategy, so the payout changes with market conditions. FDRR pays quarterly. The return figures above assume every distribution was reinvested, and income-focused owners may spend theirs instead. For a retiree who relies on regular monthly cash, JEPI’s monthly schedule is a relevant factor.
Switching also costs money in a taxable account. Selling JEPI at a gain creates a capital gains tax bill, which eats into whatever edge you hoped to capture. The sale is not taxed in an IRA or 401(k). Some taxable investors avoid a tax bill by directing new contributions or reinvested payouts to a different fund while leaving existing shares in place.
Where This Comparison Stops
JEPI’s price history begins on May 21, 2020, so no ten-year comparison is available. The longest period both funds share is five years. It covers enough market swings to be useful, but it can’t tell you what the next five years will bring.
Match the Fund to What You Need the Money to Do
A single Fed meeting offers limited basis for a shift, especially when traders see little chance of a move. Investors who reinvest and want long-term growth have a five-year record that favors the Fidelity fund. Retirees who depend on monthly cash have a solid case for keeping JEPI. Base the decision on what you need the money to do.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Ryne Mauck is an investment writer covering exchange-traded funds, retirement planning, and portfolio strategy. Through his work at 24/7 Wall St. and other investment platforms, including Seeking Alpha, he aims to provide clear, research-driven insights that help investors make more informed decisions while maintaining a long-term approach to investing.
Ryne holds a B.Sc. in Finance and an M.A. in Political Science. He is a formerly registered Municipal Advisor Representative and has passed the Series 50, Series 63, and Series 65 exams. His articles are not intended to be, nor should they be interpreted as, financial advice.
