Today’s data was based upon daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. TrimTabs also noted that recent BLS employment results are likely too high because they “are plagued by high seasonal adjustments combined with an assumption that the economy is in an accelerating growth phase.”
There is more projected data as well. Wages and salaries rose 3.7% year-over-year in March, versus an average of 3.2% in January and February; but this was only 0.8% if adjusted for inflation. The Online Job Postings Index rose only 0.2% in the past week, and weekly gains slowed in the past four weeks as the projection is that some employers are pushing out hirings past Easter.
Another important observation is that TrimTabs noted that the unemployment rate is unlikely to fall much more unless initial claims drop further. Bloomberg has a consensus target of unemployment remaining flat at 8.3% for March.
JON C. OGG
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
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