Sirius XM Stock Has Nowhere to Go but Down

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Shares of Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) were up nearly 7% Monday morning following the weekend’s announcement by Liberty Media Corp. (NASDAQ: LMCA) that it plans to acquire the 48% of the company it does not already own for $3.68 a share. Sirius shares are already trading at around $3.82 a share on enormous volume, already five times the daily average of 51 million shares.

Some investors apparently think that a better offer for Sirius will be forthcoming. That is not going to happen. Does anyone seriously believe the company will bid against itself?

Liberty absolutely controls Sirius. Here is a snippet from the company’s 2012 Form 10-K filing:

Liberty Media will be able to determine the outcome of all matters requiring stockholder approval and will be able to cause or prevent a change of control of our company or a change in the composition of our board of directors and could preclude any unsolicited acquisition of our company. The concentration of ownership could deprive our stockholder’s [sic] of an opportunity to receive a premium for their common stock as part of a sale of our company and might ultimately affect the market price of our common stock.

As we pointed out on Sunday, Liberty is getting a great deal at the expense of Sirius shareholders. The stock’s 52-week high is $4.18 and the consensus price target from Thomson Reuters is $4.60 a share.

Liberty is flexing its muscle and investors cannot say they weren’t warned.

Shares of Sirius were up more than 7.5% to $3.84, in a 52-week range of $2.95 to $4.18.