The short interest in Twitter Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) for the period that ended June 30 was 61.9 million shares, about flat with the previous quarter. However, that was 10.9% of the float, a signal that investors are still anxious about Twitter’s prospects.
Those prospects have not improved under the new CEO Jack Dorsey. He has cut deals to stream Bloomberg TV and the political conventions. None of this programming is highly watched on television
Dorsey has been unable to solve Twitter’s most important problems. Its user base growth has plateaued. Advertisers have shunned the social medium. The failures show in Twitter’s share price. It is at $18, on a trading range for the past 52 months of $13.79 to $37.09.
Two things stood out in its most recent quarterly report. Active monthly users were up only 3% from the same period the year before. And:
For Q2, we expect:
- Revenue to be in the range of $590 to $610 million;
- Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $145 to $155 million;
- Stock-based compensation expense to be in the range of $165 to $175 million;
- GAAP share count to be in the range of 700 to 705 million shares;
- Non-GAAP share count to be in the range of 710 to 720 million shares.
For FY 2016, we expect:
- Capital expenditures to be $300 to $425 million;
- Adjusted EBITDA margin gain in the in the range of 25% to 27%
That was enough to sicken shareholders.
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