Most Americans look at polls as forecasts of who will win the Democratic nomination. They tend to view these numbers through their eyes of voters. Another group is likely to be just as interested. These are people who bet real money on the outcomes.
Two major and well-known groups of professional gamblers have given the best odds to win the nomination to Elizabeth Warren who does not lead the field in any widely regarded poll. She is followed in both cases by front-runner Joe Biden and in third and fourth places are Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, but not in that order based on the two betting pools.
Gambling site Bovada, which is carefully followed by people who bet on poker, casino games and horse racing has a system in which the candidate who posts the lowest number has the greatest chance of winning, a system widely used when describing odds. Based on this gambling operation Odds Shark puts Warren’s number as +225. Biden’s is +250. Harris follows at +550. Sanders is at +650. Odds Shark betting experts have an explanation for Warren’s position. “We saw a shift in momentum following her town hall in late April when not only did she outline in more depth her platform, but she also detailed how she would go about making her platform a reality. She has a strong economic background as a former bankruptcy lawyer and also appeals to the young voters with her plans for free college, free health care and wiping away student debts.”
PredictIt is a gambling site which only covers politics. The operation is run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, which is a non-profit school. Gambling on PredictIt covers the presidential race and races for the Senate and House. It also offers betting on presidential primaries. Gamblers can vote “yes” or “no” to whether a candidate will win a race, so odds are expressed in dollars. Under this system, the candidates which have the highest “yes” investments are those the gamblers think is most likely to win.
PredictIt puts Warren’s figure at 33 cents. Biden is next at 27 cents. He is followed by Sanders at 16 cents and Harris at 13 cents.
While the two widely used gambling sites do not agree entirely on who is in the third and fourth places, they do agree on who should be the fun runner. That is not Biden, who finishes first in almost all national polls, but Warren, who often finishes second.
For more election coverage, readers can find out how likely people are to vote in their states, based on 24/7 Wall St. numbers.