Airbus and its chief rival Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) will slug it out for supremacy, particularly in the passenger market, which Airbus expects to generate $3.7 trillion of the total demand. If Airbus is right, total revenues for both companies will nearly double in the 20-year period.
The company expects passenger traffic to grow at an annual average rate of 4.7%, with more than half the growth coming from emerging economic regions. The passenger fleet will grow from more than 15,550 today to more than 32,500 in 2031. Here are a few other prognostications:
- The number of global megacities (population more than 10 million) will more than double to 92 and will be at one or another end of a journey for more than 90% of international air traffic.
- International traffic aside, four of the largest traffic flows will be domestic — the United States, China, Western Europe and India — and will account for a third of all world traffic.
- China’s domestic traffic will be the largest in the world, overtaking the United States.
- Asia-Pacific will take 35% of the new aircraft, with Europe and the U.S. each taking 21%.
- By 2031, more than 1,700 of the largest aircraft — the Airbus 380 and the Boeing 747 — will have been delivered, most to meet passenger demand.
- Demand for twin-aisle airplanes — the Airbus A330 and 350 and the Boeing 777 and 787 — will increase to nearly 7,000 planes, again mostly for the passenger market.
- By 2031, deliveries of new single-aisle planes — the Airbus 320 and Boeing 737 — will top 19,500, with most going to Asia-Pacific.
A presentation and the full report are available here.
Paul Ausick
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks