Running out of money in retirement is one of the top fears of soon-to-be retirees, and for good reason. It is one of the nastiest wake-up calls anyone can receive. Not only is it painful to return to work after savoring the first few years of freedom, but re-entering the workforce rarely means landing the same salary. There is also no guarantee that one can perform their previous role effectively later in life.
The fear runs surprisingly deep. A 2025 RetirementLiving survey of 1,000 adults aged 60 and older found that 58% worry their finances simply will not last through retirement. A separate 2025 Annual Retirement Study from the Allianz Center for the Future of Retirement put the anxiety in even starker terms: nearly two in three Americans (64%) worry more about running out of money than about death itself.
This anxiety is not limited to those who are financially stretched. High-net-worth individuals, even those with everything seemingly in order, share the same unease. Emergency healthcare costs or a violent stock market correction can put an otherwise sound retirement plan under serious stress.
That is why retirees who feel uncertain about the sustainability of their nest egg should err on the side of caution and get a registered financial planner to give everything a second look. Being overly conservative with investments in retirement can limit growth, but the key benefit is having enough cushion to absorb a catastrophic scenario if one actually materializes.
At the end of the day, retirees should not over-extend themselves on risk, whether by pushing withdrawal rates markedly above 4% or chasing an asset allocation so heavy in stocks that it introduces dangerous volatility.
Market crashes and corrections can happen. With the stock market rattled by Trump tariff uncertainty, many stock-heavy retirees have already gotten the memo: fasten the seatbelt or rebalance to reduce portfolio volatility.
Enter the case of a 61-year-old new retiree
This piece examines the specific situation of a 61-year-old who has just left a $145,000 salary behind. The retiree has close to $2 million in a 401(k), ample assets spread across other tax-advantaged accounts, and a considerable sum sitting in cash and Certificates of Deposit (CDs). In short, they are invested well and carry good liquidity. On the surface, they look quite well-positioned for a long retirement.
Add a spouse, aged 55, who is still working and building a seven-figure nest egg of their own, and the case for financial security becomes even stronger. The risk of running out of money is low, unless the couple plans a significant lifestyle upgrade after retirement.
One complicating factor is hefty college expenses on the horizon for their child. College bills can escalate quickly. According to College Board data for 2025-26, tuition and fees alone average $11,950 per year at public four-year in-state schools and $45,000 at private nonprofit universities. Those numbers climb further if the child pursues graduate study or a professional degree. Fortunately, the retiree has ample liquidity in CDs and cash to cover any gap if their 529 plan comes up short.
Ideally, the stock portion of the nest egg should stay untouched, especially while tariff-driven market uncertainty persists. Selling equities during a downturn locks in losses that can take years to recover.
With large college expenses ahead and an understandable lingering anxiety about outliving savings, the wiser path is to be conservative with the withdrawal rate, at least for now. And as always, a financial advisor can gauge your personal risk tolerance and spending needs far better than any general article can.
What’s a good withdrawal rate to target?
The “4% rule” remains the most widely cited starting point for retirees. Developed by financial planner William Bengen and published in the Journal of Financial Planning in 1994, it calls for withdrawing 4% of the initial portfolio in the first year, then adjusting that dollar figure upward each year for inflation. For a $3.6 million total investable portfolio, a 4% rate would yield just shy of $145,000 per year, a comfortable sum by almost any standard.
That said, current research points to a somewhat more conservative baseline. Morningstar’s 2025 “State of Retirement Income” report pegs the safe starting withdrawal rate at 3.9% for retirees seeking a steady, inflation-adjusted income stream over a 30-year horizon, assuming a 90% probability of having assets remaining at the end of that period. That is up slightly from 3.7% in the prior year’s research, reflecting modestly improved return expectations across asset classes.
For this retiree, given the combination of stock market volatility, near-term college expenses, and a cautious temperament (evidenced by heavy exposure to CDs and cash), a 3% withdrawal rate looks prudent. On a $3.6 million portfolio, 3% translates to $108,000 per year, still a very respectable annual income. Historical simulations consistently show that a 3% rate carries a success rate well above 95% for 30-year retirements, even in poor market-return sequences.
If annual spending is expected to run well below $108,000, an even lower rate in the 2.5% range remains a reasonable option. The right number ultimately depends on expected expenses and personal comfort with uncertainty, which is precisely what a fee-only financial advisor can help quantify.
One additional consideration: our retiree is just one year away from age 62, the earliest point at which Social Security benefits can be claimed. Claiming at 62 permanently reduces benefits by up to 30% compared to the full retirement age of 67. Waiting even a few years, or ideally until age 70, would meaningfully increase that guaranteed monthly income and reduce dependence on portfolio withdrawals.
The good news here is structural. The spouse is still working and likely to continue for another 5 to 10 years, which provides a financial safety net if markets wobble or college costs exceed projections. That earned income serves as a buffer, reducing the pressure on the portfolio during the years when sequence-of-returns risk is highest.
The bottom line
A withdrawal rate is not a fixed contract. Adjusting it based on market conditions, expected expenses, and evolving comfort levels is a sound approach. When stocks are under pressure and tuition bills are coming due, dialing back to 3% or even 2.5% makes sense. Once the portfolio has stabilized and the college years have passed, revisiting a rate closer to 3.5% or 4% is entirely reasonable. Flexibility is the retiree’s most underrated tool.
Editor’s note: This article was updated to include the Morningstar 2025 “State of Retirement Income” finding that the current baseline safe withdrawal rate is 3.9% (up from 3.7% in 2024), and to add 2025 survey data showing that 64% of Americans fear running out of money more than death. Current College Board figures for 2025-26 tuition costs and Social Security early-claiming context for the retiree’s age were also incorporated.
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