Some pundits and skeptics have long voiced doubts about the S&P 500’s ability to deliver a third straight year of blockbuster gains. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC | WFC Price Prediction) senior global market strategist Scott Wren set a 2025 year-end target of 6,600 for the index, which at the time implied a return closer to 10% from late-2024 levels. That would have been a solid result even without matching the prior two years. As it turned out, the S&P 500 posted a total return of roughly 17.9% in 2025, capping three consecutive years of double-digit gains and proving the bears wrong again.
The backdrop brings to mind an investor who posted on r/fatFIRE convinced that a recession was imminent and considering shifting about 90% of their 401(k) into cash. That is an extreme reaction to a hunch, and the subsequent market performance underscores exactly why.
Fleeing to cash makes sense only when a person’s financial situation has changed in a concrete way, such as an unexpected medical cost or a major near-term expense requiring liquidity. Anyone genuinely approaching that point should consult a financial advisor before making a fear-driven decision about their retirement account.
The stock market had a run. Skepticism is understandable.
It is tempting to assume that a weak year must follow two exceptional ones, especially when those two years delivered some of the strongest back-to-back returns in recent history. The S&P 500 surged 26.3% in 2023 and 25.0% in 2024, producing the kind of consecutive 20%-plus gains not seen since the late 1990s. Viewed as a burst, the pace looks unsustainably fast. But momentum depends heavily on the window you choose to measure.
Zoom out to the period since the late-2021 peak and the picture shifts considerably. The 2022 bear market erased a full year of gains before the recovery even began, meaning the cumulative advance over roughly three years was far more modest than the headline numbers suggest. The AI-driven surge that dominated 2023 and 2024 does echo the technology frenzy of 1997 to 1999, an era that saw four consecutive years of 20%-plus S&P 500 gains followed by the dot-com bust in 2000. Whether history rhymes again remains an open question, but the parallel is worth keeping in mind.
The year 2025 itself served as a live demonstration of why recession fears alone should not drive portfolio decisions. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 19% from its February 19 peak to an intraday low on April 8, when sweeping tariff announcements rattled global markets and economists warned of recession. An investor who sold into that decline would have locked in painful losses. Instead, the index surged roughly 39% on a total-return basis from the April low through year-end, as trade tensions eased and corporate earnings came in strong. The final 17.9% annual total return was a powerful reminder that recoveries can be as fast and unexpected as the selloffs that precede them.
Be calculated. Avoid portfolio moves made out of fear.
Making a sudden wholesale shift in your retirement portfolio because you believe a correction is coming is almost always a mistake. Recessions and their timing are notoriously hard to predict even for experienced economists, and the stock market often does not behave the way intuition suggests it should. Markets can peak months before a recession officially begins, or rally sharply right through one. The stock market and the economy are two different things.
The cost of being wrong is steep. A Davis Advisors study found that a hypothetical investor who bought $10,000 of an S&P 500 index fund at the 2007 market peak and then sold at the 2009 lows to move to cash would have ended 2022 with just $5,138. An investor who stayed put through the same period would have ended 2022 with $33,420. The penalty for panic-selling is not just missing some upside. It can permanently impair a retirement account’s long-term trajectory.
The more sensible path is long-term investing with a focus on maintaining a thoughtful asset allocation, adding to positions when prices fall, and trimming ones that have grown overvalued. Keeping a modest cash reserve inside a retirement account creates flexibility for opportunistic moves without requiring a drastic liquidation of the whole portfolio. That kind of disciplined preparation beats a reactive flight to safety that locks in losses and misses the recovery.
The bottom line
Timing the market is a losing strategy, even after a hot multi-year run. The investor who wanted to shift 90% of their 401(k) to cash in late 2024 on recession fears would have sat out a year when the S&P 500 gained nearly 18% on a total-return basis, including a gut-wrenching intraday drawdown of about 19% that resolved itself within months. If your life circumstances change materially and you genuinely need the money soon, contact an advisor and work through a real plan. Acting on a vague recession hunch carries opportunity costs that are easy to underestimate and very hard to recover from.
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to include the S&P 500’s confirmed 2025 annual performance figures (26.3% in 2023, 25.0% in 2024, and 17.9% total return in 2025) sourced from FT Portfolios and RBC Wealth Management, and to add context about the index’s roughly 19% intraday drawdown from its February 19 peak to an April 8 low and its subsequent roughly 39% total-return surge from that low through year-end, as reported by RBC Wealth Management.
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