Dave Ramsey recently told his audience to claim Social Security at 62 and pour the checks into the stock market. Suze Orman told hers the opposite: “If you don’t have to take Social Security earlier than your full retirement age, or preferably 70, please don’t.”
The stakes are concrete. Claim at 62 and your monthly benefit is permanently reduced by up to 30% versus full retirement age (FRA). Wait until 70 and it grows about 8% for each year past FRA. Pick the wrong side of that decision and you can leave six figures on the table over a 25-year retirement.
Orman’s math is the harder one to beat
Ramsey’s pitch works only if the stock market reliably outruns the guaranteed Social Security increase. The increases are meaningful: for each year you claim before FRA, benefits are reduced by about 6.7%. For each year you delay past FRA up to age 70, they rise about 8%. That 8% is guaranteed, inflation-adjusted through COLA, and lasts as long as you live.
Compare that to the risk-free benchmark. The 10-year Treasury yields around 4.6%. To beat the Social Security delay credit, Ramsey’s portfolio has to clear that hurdle plus a meaningful risk premium, every year, without a damaging sequence of returns at the wrong moment. The gap between what you need to earn and what the market might actually deliver in any given stretch is the core weakness in his argument.
A break-even walkthrough with real numbers
Take Maria, who would receive $2,000 a month at FRA (67). Claim at 62 and she gets roughly $1,400. Wait to 70 and she gets about $2,480. That is an $1,080 monthly gap between claiming early and waiting eight years.
If Maria claims at 62 and invests every check, she has eight years to build a cushion before the late claimer catches up in monthly income. Once she turns 70, the late-claiming version of her collects $1,080 more every month for life, on a higher base that COLA keeps adjusting upward. The standard break-even sits in the early-to-mid 80s. Beyond that, waiting wins, and the gap compounds with each passing year.
Why the “invest the difference” strategy usually breaks
Ramsey leans on historical equity returns. The S&P 500, tracked by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), has delivered an annualized total return of roughly 14.8% over the ten years ending December 2025, well above its long-run historical average of about 10% per year. Those long-run numbers are real, but a 62-year-old investing Social Security checks for eight years is fully exposed to sequence-of-returns risk. One 2008-style drawdown in year three wipes out the cushion the whole strategy depends on.
Hedge that risk by shifting toward bonds and a conservative mix, and your expected return drops to roughly 3% to 4%. That sits below the 8% guaranteed delay credit, and the arithmetic stops working before you even account for taxes on the invested benefits.
Inflation strengthens the case for waiting further. The CPI-U index rose from 308.417 in January 2024 to 335.123 in May 2026, a gain of 4.2% in the twelve months through May alone. Social Security’s COLA adjusts the larger, delayed benefit every year. A bond portfolio locked in at today’s yield does not. The retiree who claims early locks in a smaller base for all future COLA increases, which means the purchasing-power gap between the early claimer and the late claimer widens every year inflation runs hot.
The variable that can flip the answer: longevity
Life expectancy decides this. If you have a serious health condition, or strong family evidence of not reaching the mid-70s, Ramsey’s logic becomes defensible because you collect more total checks before break-even. Even so, more than a quarter of new Social Security beneficiaries still file at 62, a share that reflects genuine financial need as much as any optimism about early returns.
Run Maria again. Die at 75 and she collected $1,400 a month for 13 years claiming at 62, roughly $218,400 in nominal benefits. Waiting to 70 gets her only five years at $2,480, roughly $148,800. Early claiming wins by about $70,000 in that scenario.
Flip it to age 90. The early claimer collects about $470,400. The late claimer collects about $595,200. Waiting wins by roughly $125,000, before COLA compounding pushes the gap even wider.
How to make this decision for yourself
- Pull your personalized benefit estimate from SSA.gov. The Retirement Estimator shows your exact monthly amount at 62, FRA, and 70 using your real earnings record, so you can move past hypotheticals and work with your actual numbers.
- Calculate your personal break-even age. Take the cumulative early benefits you would collect from 62 to 70, then divide that total by the monthly income gap between claiming at 62 and at 70. The result is the age past which waiting wins.
- Check longevity honestly. The SSA life expectancy calculator gives a baseline. Adjust for family history, smoking status, and current health. If your honest estimate is past 82, waiting almost always wins.
- If you still plan to invest early benefits, decide in advance how you would respond to a 30% drawdown in your first three retirement years. If the answer is to sell, the strategy was never right for you.
Orman wins this argument for most people because she is advocating for guaranteed, inflation-adjusted income that grows at 8% per year of delay. Ramsey wins only if you die early or consistently beat that return after taxes and fees. Bet on your own longevity before you bet on the market.
Editor’s note: This update corrects the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.6%, replaces unverified cumulative S&P 500 return figures with Fidelity’s confirmed annualized 10-year return of 14.8% and the long-run historical average of about 10%, and adds the BLS-confirmed 4.2% year-over-year CPI rate through May 2026 to contextualize the COLA advantage of delayed claiming.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks