If Social Security Cuts Benefits, Here’s Who Might Get Hurt the Most
Social Security benefit cuts could hit hardest for one overlooked group of retirees who already collect far less than the average monthly check and have fewer options to make up the difference. The 2026 Trustees Report now projects automatic cuts…
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Rumors that Social Security is about to go broke and stop paying benefits entirely have circulated for years. Those rumors are not grounded in reality, and it is worth understanding what is actually happening before planning around worst-case assumptions.
Social Security does face real financial pressure. In the coming years, the program expects to owe more in benefits than it collects in revenue, driven largely by an aging population and a slower-growing workforce. But the program cannot simply run dry. Payroll taxes are its primary funding source, and those keep coming in regardless of what happens to the trust fund balance.
The real risk is an automatic benefit cut, not a total collapse. According to the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released in June 2026, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is now projected to be depleted in late 2032. At that point, ongoing payroll tax revenue would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits, triggering an automatic 22% reduction across the board. That depletion date moved one year earlier than the prior projection, largely because the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” signed in 2025, reduced income tax revenues flowing into the trust fund by lowering tax liability for Social Security beneficiaries. The program’s 75-year shortfall is now estimated at roughly $30 trillion.
One group of retired Americans would likely feel the squeeze more sharply than most. If you are among them, understanding the exposure now gives you more time to prepare.
Spousal benefit recipients could feel the pain
Most people collect Social Security retirement benefits based on their own earnings records. For those who never worked outside the home, or who spent years in a lower-paying role, spousal benefits can be the primary source of income in retirement.
A spousal benefit is worth up to 50% of the working spouse’s primary insurance amount. In a household where one partner qualifies for $2,400 a month at full retirement age, the other may be eligible for up to $1,200 in spousal benefit form. Ex-spouses can also qualify, provided the marriage lasted at least 10 years.
Because spousal benefits are already well below typical retirement benefits, a broad cut hits harder in relative terms. As of June 2026, the average monthly retirement benefit was $2,084, while the average spousal benefit was just $986, less than half. Many spousal recipients also face a Medicare Part B premium of $202.90 per month in 2026, leaving roughly $783 in take-home income before any trust fund cut is factored in.
A 22% reduction applied to a $986 monthly spousal benefit would bring the average payment down to about $769. For retirees who are divorced, live alone, and have no income outside Social Security, that kind of reduction is not an abstraction. It is a meaningful gap in a budget that likely has few places to absorb it.
Social Security cuts are not a given
Congress has real options to address the shortfall before 2032. Raising the payroll tax rate, lifting the taxable wage ceiling (currently $184,500 in 2026), or gradually pushing back the full retirement age are all approaches lawmakers have discussed. Historically, Congress has acted before automatic cuts were allowed to take effect, most recently shoring up the disability insurance fund in 2015.
That said, the trajectory is worth taking seriously. The 2026 Trustees Report carries an explicit warning to policymakers, and the 75-year shortfall has grown substantially in recent years. For anyone relying on spousal benefits who has not yet retired, exploring part-time work now or building savings could provide a cushion if Congress falls short. For those already collecting, part-time income remains an option worth considering, with attention to how earnings interact with benefit calculations depending on age.
The program is not going away. But for spousal benefit recipients in particular, a 22% cut would land on an already modest monthly check, and the window to prepare is narrower than it looked even a year ago.
Editor’s note: This article was updated to reflect the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released June 9, 2026, which moved the OASI trust fund depletion date to late 2032 (one year earlier than previously projected) and added context on the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s” role in accelerating that timeline. The current average monthly retirement benefit ($2,084) and average spousal benefit ($986) are drawn from SSA June 2026 data, and the Medicare Part B premium figure ($202.90) reflects the 2026 standard rate.
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Maurie Backman has more than a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including retirement, investing, Social Security, and real estate. Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, USA Today, U.S. News & World Report, and Kiplinger.
Prior to becoming a full-time financial writer, Maurie worked in the financial industry trading distressed debt. She then changed course and spent a few years designing electronic toys. After a stint in content marketing and UX, she shifted back into writing and has since covered everything from the housing market to estate planning to Medicare.
When she's not busy writing, Maurie can be found hiking, walking her dogs, driving her kids to their various sports practices and games, and curling up with a good book. She cooks on occasion and bakes way too often.
