If Social Security Cuts Benefits, Here’s Who Might Get Hurt the Most
Social Security benefit cuts could hit hardest for one overlooked group of retirees who already collect far less than the average monthly check and have fewer options to make up the difference. The 2026 Trustees Report projects automatic cuts could…
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Rumors that Social Security is about to go broke and stop paying benefits entirely have circulated for years, and they remain disconnected from reality. Understanding what is actually happening is far more useful than planning around worst-case assumptions.
Social Security does face genuine financial pressure. In the coming years, the program expects to owe more in benefits than it collects in revenue, driven largely by an aging population and a slower-growing workforce. But the program cannot simply run dry. Payroll taxes are its primary funding source, and those keep flowing in regardless of what happens to the trust fund balance.
The real risk is an automatic benefit cut, not total collapse. According to the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, released on June 9, 2026, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund is now projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than the prior projection of early 2033. At that point, ongoing payroll tax revenue would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits, triggering an automatic 22% reduction across the board. The accelerated timeline reflects the impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” signed in 2025, which reduced income tax revenues flowing into the trust fund by lowering tax liability for Social Security beneficiaries. The program’s 75-year shortfall now stands at $30.3 trillion.
One group of retired Americans would likely feel that squeeze more sharply than most. If you are among them, understanding the exposure now gives you more time to prepare.
Spousal benefit recipients could feel the pain
Most people collect Social Security retirement benefits based on their own earnings records. For those who never worked outside the home, or who spent years in a lower-paying role, spousal benefits can be the primary source of income in retirement.
A spousal benefit is worth up to 50% of the working spouse’s primary insurance amount at full retirement age. In a household where one partner qualifies for $2,400 a month, the other may be eligible for up to $1,200 in spousal benefits. Ex-spouses can also qualify, provided the marriage lasted at least 10 years and the claimant has not remarried.
Because spousal benefits already fall well below typical retirement payments, a broad cut hits harder in relative terms. As of July 2026, the average monthly benefit for retired workers was about $2,086, while the average spousal benefit was just $987, less than half. Many spousal recipients also face a Medicare Part B premium of $202.90 per month in 2026, leaving roughly $784 in take-home income before any trust fund cut is factored in.
A 22% reduction applied to a $987 average spousal benefit would bring the payment down to around $770. For retirees who are divorced, live alone, and have no income outside Social Security, that gap is not an abstraction. It lands on a budget that likely has few places to absorb it.
Social Security cuts are not a given
Congress has real options to address the shortfall before 2032. Raising the payroll tax rate, lifting the taxable wage ceiling (currently $184,500 in 2026), or gradually pushing back the full retirement age are all approaches lawmakers have discussed. Historically, Congress has acted before automatic cuts were allowed to take effect, most recently shoring up the disability insurance fund in 2015.
There is bipartisan movement in 2026, though progress is uncertain. In July, a group of senators introduced the PROMISE Act (S. 4979), which would direct the Social Security Advisory Board to develop a reform bill and send it to Congress under an expedited process. On the House side, the Bipartisan Social Security Commission Act of 2026 (H.R. 9187) would establish a 13-member commission to produce legislation restoring 75-year solvency. Neither bill has yet passed, and AARP has raised objections to the Senate proposal’s fast-track framework. Still, the dual-track legislative effort signals that lawmakers in both parties recognize the clock is running.
The 2026 Trustees Report carries an explicit warning to policymakers, and the 75-year shortfall has grown substantially in recent years. For anyone relying on spousal benefits who has not yet retired, exploring part-time work or building additional savings now could provide a cushion if Congress falls short. For those already collecting, part-time income remains an option worth considering, with attention to how earnings interact with benefit calculations depending on age.
Social Security is not going away. But for spousal benefit recipients in particular, a 22% cut would land on an already modest monthly check, and the window for Congress to act is narrower than it looked even a year ago.
Editor’s note: This article was updated to correct the OASI trust fund depletion timeline shift from “one year earlier” to one quarter earlier (moving from Q1 2033 to Q4 2032 per the 2026 Trustees Report), to refresh the average retirement benefit to approximately $2,086 and spousal benefit to $987 based on July 2026 SSA data, and to update the 75-year unfunded liability to the precise $30.3 trillion figure. New context on the bipartisan PROMISE Act and Bipartisan Social Security Commission Act of 2026, both introduced after original publication, was also added.
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Maurie Backman has more than a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including retirement, investing, Social Security, and real estate. Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, USA Today, U.S. News & World Report, The Washington Post, and Kiplinger.
Prior to becoming a full-time financial writer, Maurie worked in the financial industry trading distressed debt. She then changed course and spent a few years designing electronic toys. After a stint in content marketing and UX, she shifted back into writing and has since covered everything from the housing market to estate planning to Medicare.
When she's not busy writing, Maurie can be found hiking, walking her dogs, driving her kids to their various sports practices and games, and curling up with a good book. She cooks on occasion and bakes way too often.
