Social Security’s 2027 Raise Is Announced in October. Medicare’s Part B Increase Is Revealed in November. January’s Deposit Is the First One to Show Both
Social Security announces its raise in October, Medicare reveals its cut in November, and retirees spend two months doing math that still leaves out the number that actually counts.
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In October, a retiree opens her mail and reads that Social Security is raising benefits for 2027. Weeks later, CMS announces the new Medicare Part B premium. Neither notice tells her what will actually land in her checking account. That answer waits until January, when the larger benefit and the bigger Medicare deduction meet on the same deposit for the first time.
If you receive Social Security and have Part B withheld, that January deposit is the number that matters. Everything announced between now and then is a preview.
October: Social Security Announces the Raise
The Social Security Administration sets each year’s cost-of-living adjustment by comparing the average CPI-W index for July, August, and September against the same quarter a year earlier. At last check, the data is trending toward the mid-3% range.
The percentage applies to your gross benefit, before Medicare and taxes come out. A $2,000 gross benefit at an illustrative 3.5% COLA rises by $70 a month. That $70 is the ceiling for what the raise can add to your deposit, not the floor.
November: CMS Reveals Medicare’s Share
The 2027 Part B premium is announced separately, usually in November, in the CMS annual fact sheet. Until then, the best public anchor is the Medicare Trustees Report. The 2026 Trustees Report, released July 28, 2026, projected a $209.50 standard Part B premium for 2027, up from the 2026 standard premium of $202.90. The Trustees figure is a projection. CMS can and often does land above or below it.
Most beneficiaries have Part B pulled directly from their monthly Social Security payment, so a higher standard premium immediately eats into the COLA. Higher-income enrollees who owe IRMAA see a bigger deduction still, and their surcharge tier resets with the new income-related brackets SSA publishes alongside the CMS announcement (we mapped the IRMAA thresholds and the other Medicare traps that quietly raise a retiree’s premium in a free guide here: Medicare’s Hidden Bills).
January: Where the Two Numbers Intersect
Using the illustrative $2,000 benefit and the projected Part B increase:
- Old gross benefit: $2,000
- Illustrative 3.5% COLA: +$70.00
- Projected Part B change ($202.90 to $209.50): -$6.60
- Approximate net raise reaching the bank: $63.40
Federal tax withholding, Part D premiums, Medicare Advantage premiums, and any garnishments can shift your specific number in either direction. And SSA applies the COLA to the December benefit, which most beneficiaries receive in January, which is why the January deposit is the first one that carries both changes at once.
What Hold Harmless Actually Protects
The hold-harmless provision at 42 U.S.C. §1395r(f) limits the standard Part B bump so that the premium increase alone does not shrink a beneficiary’s Social Security payment from one year to the next. It protects the floor of the check. It does not guarantee you pocket the entire raise. Medicare can still absorb part of the COLA, as the illustration above shows.
Hold harmless generally does not cover:
- Anyone paying IRMAA
- New Part B enrollees in 2027
- Beneficiaries whose Part B premium is not deducted from Social Security
- Dual eligibility whose premium is paid by a state Medicaid program
An IRMAA payer whose income triggered a higher tier can see a January deposit that is smaller than December’s, even in a year with a positive COLA.
Two Actions Before Year-End
- Watch for the personalized COLA notice SSA mails in December, or pull it earlier from your my Social Security account. It shows the new gross benefit, Medicare deduction, tax withholding, and the exact net payment. If the Part B or IRMAA line looks wrong, cross-check it against your separate Medicare premium notice rather than assuming SSA miscalculated the COLA.
- If a one-time income event in 2025 (a Roth conversion, a home sale, severance) pushed you into IRMAA for 2027 and one of the qualifying life-changing events listed on Form SSA-44 has since occurred, file the form with documentation to request a recalculation. SSA-44 only reverses income that dropped for a qualifying reason. It will not undo a voluntary income event, no matter how much it raised your MAGI.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Gerelyn Terzo is the author of dividend investing handbook "Dividend Investing Strategies: How to Have Your Cake & Eat It Too." A veteran financial journalist, she covers agri-finance for outlets like Global AgInvesting and the broader stock market and personal finance for 24/7 Wall Street. She began at CNBC and later helped launch Fox Business in New York. Gerelyn currently resides in Woodland Park, Colorado and dabbles in nature photography as a hobby.
