Many larger retailers need a lift, based on data since the start of the year. Perhaps Mother’s Day will help them. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts Mother’s Day retail spending will reach $21.2 billion, up sharply from last year and the highest level since its research about spending on the holiday began.

The forecast has been broken into spending for individual mothers:

Families this year are ready to splurge on jewelry, flowers, gift cards, brunch, and apparel for dear old mom. According to NRF’s 2015 Mother’s Day Spending Survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, Americans will spend an average of $172.63 on mom this year, up nearly $10 from $162.94 last year and the highest amount in the survey’s 12-year history.

No one can say for certain which retailers will benefit most from the trend. Presumably, the groups will include florists and restaurants, which leaves a modest part of the $21.2 billion pie to traditional retailers. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) offers free one-day shipping for certain Mother’s Day items, but free shipping has become a commodity. Amazon’s edge is its past experience from decades of Mother’s Days. For example, it figures consumers want Mother’s Day gifts that include vacuums and jewelry. One of those is not very traditional.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s (NYSE: WMT) list of Mother’s Day gifts is more traditional than Amazon’s. The world’s largest retailer is promoting clothing, fragrances and jewelry. Not to be entirely flanked by Amazon, it is also promoting mixers and coffeemakers. Consumer research must show that some mothers are more practical than others.

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Some modest part of the expectations for Mother’s Day purchases favors companies like Wal-Mart and Amazon. NRF researchers commented:

Most shoppers will head to department stores (33.4%), while others will shop at specialty stores (28.2%) or discount stores (24.8%). With shoppers ready to get out of the house after a long winter, fewer shoppers will be shopping online this year (25% vs. 29% last year.)

Split that with restaurants and florists, and the benefits to retailers are not spectacular.

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