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Are TripAdvisor and Priceline Signaling Peak Travel or a Vacation Recession?

courtesy of American Airlines Inc.

TripAdvisor Inc. (NASDAQ: TRIP) and Priceline Group Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN) may have one thing in common: they both suffered into or after earnings. It might be easy to signal that both companies have already had their great easy growth days. The flip side is to ask whether these represent a travel recession or if it means that peak travel numbers have been witnessed for this business cycle.

TripAdvisor reported that revenue fell 3% to $352 million, for a decrease of roughly 1% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.32 did not enthrall investors either — consensus estimates were $0.45 EPS on revenues of $370 million or so.

What stands out is that the after-hours reaction was far worse than the formal opening price for TripAdvisor shares. One of the problems seen was that there may be too much mobile penetration. Mobile reached 54% of total unique users and app downloads reached 315 million in the first quarter. As a reminder, mobile is harder for most companies to convert to revenue versus desktop users.

TripAdvisor shares were down initially between 4% and 5% in Wednesday’s after-hours trading session, but they were up 1% at $64.00 shortly after Thursday’s opening bell.


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