> Workforce in high-risk industries: 15.0% of total (6th lowest)
> Unemployment claims since mid-March: 902,261 (23.7% of workforce — 16th highest)
> COVID cases as of June 1, 2020: 100,805 (1,460 per 100,000 people — 3rd highest)
> COVID deaths as of June 1, 2020: 7,035 (102 per 100,000 people — 4th highest)
> April unemployment rate: 15.1% (16th highest)
While Massachusetts is relatively insulated from the economic consequences of the pandemic — just 15.0% of workers are employed in high-risk industries, the sixth smallest share of any state — the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Massachusetts may curb economic activity in the state for a longer period than in most of the nation. As of June 1, there were 1,460 confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 Massachusetts residents, the third highest infection rate of any state. Massachusetts has some of the strictest coronavirus restrictions in place, and consumer confidence is lower than in all but two other states, according to analysis from Morning Consult.
The unemployment rate in Massachusetts rose 12.1 percentage points from April 2019 to April 2020, the 10th largest increase of any state. The state’s unemployment rate now stands at 15.1%, more than the 14.7% national figure.
9. New York
> Workforce in high-risk industries: 15.1% of total (7th lowest)
> Unemployment claims since mid-March: 2,420,559 (25.4% of workforce — 13th highest)
> COVID cases as of June 1, 2020: 371,711 (1,902 per 100,000 people — the highest)
> COVID deaths as of June 1, 2020: 23,959 (123 per 100,000 people — 2nd highest)
> April unemployment rate: 14.5% (19th highest)
While workers in nearly all industries have been affected by the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, in some industries, workers have been hurt more than others. In New York, prior to the pandemic outbreak, a nation-leading 56% of employment was in industries deemed by Moody’s low risk to the effects of the pandemic, including financial activities, information, and health care.
However, New York has also been the hardest hit state by COVID-19, with 1,902 confirmed cases per 100,000 people, the highest of any state and considerably higher than the national figure of 547 cases per 100,000. Just over 25% of the state’s labor force has filed for unemployment since mid-march, one of the higher figures of any state.
> Workforce in high-risk industries: 16.4% of total (17th lowest)
> Unemployment claims since mid-March: 1,496,219 (30.3% of workforce — 7th highest)
> COVID cases as of June 1, 2020: 57,532 (576 per 100,000 people — 12th highest)
> COVID deaths as of June 1, 2020: 5,516 (55 per 100,000 people — 7th highest)
> April unemployment rate: 22.7% (2nd highest)
From April 2019 to April 2020, Michigan’s unemployment rate rose by 18.4 percentage points, the third largest increase of any state. The state’s unemployment rate now stands at 22.7%, the second highest in the nation. Since March 15, 1.5 million state residents have applied for unemployment benefits, equivalent to 30.3% of the Michigan labor force — the seventh largest share of any state.
According to Moody’s, Michigan will face a 27.0% decline in state revenue through fiscal 2021, the ninth largest decrease of any state. And while Michigan has one of the largest rainy day funds of any state, it is not enough to protect the state against the financial shock. Moody’s projects Michigan will face a 15.9% budget shortfall in 2021, the eighth largest shortfall nationwide.
> Workforce in high-risk industries: 19.5% of total (12th highest)
> Unemployment claims since mid-March: 651,756 (31.3% of workforce — 5th highest)
> COVID cases as of June 1, 2020: 40,341 (866 per 100,000 people — 9th highest)
> COVID deaths as of June 1, 2020: 2,690 (58 per 100,000 people — 6th highest)
> April unemployment rate: 14.5% (19th highest)
Nearly one in every five workers in Louisiana are employed in industries at high risk of slowdown in the wake of the pandemic. Partially as a result, the state’s unemployment rate stands at 14.5% — higher than in a majority of other states. That figure will likely only keep climbing as more than 651,000 Louisiana residents have filed for unemployment since mid-March, or over 31% of the state’s total workforce — the fifth highest share among states.
6. New Jersey
> Workforce in high-risk industries: 17.4% of total (24th highest)
> Unemployment claims since mid-March: 1,123,237 (25.2% of workforce — 14th highest)
> COVID cases as of June 1, 2020: 160,918 (1,806 per 100,000 people — 2nd highest)
> COVID deaths as of June 1, 2020: 11,721 (132 per 100,000 people — the highest)
> April unemployment rate: 15.3% (14th highest)
New Jersey is home to one of the worst COVID-19 outbreaks in the world. As of June 1, there were 1,806 confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 state residents, the second highest infection rate of any state. There have been 132 deaths per 100,000, the highest death rate.
The delay in economic activity that will result from the severity of the pandemic in New Jersey is likely to result in a recession that the state is hardly prepared for. Moody’s projects the state will suffer a 27.2% decline in revenue through fiscal 2021, the eighth largest contraction of any state. And with a financial reserve equivalent to just 1.1% of annual expenditure — the sixth smallest rainy day fund of any state — New Jersey is projected to face a 26.2% budget shortfall in fiscal 2021, the second largest nationwide.
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