State Economies Most Likely to Be Crippled by COVID-19

South Dakota’s economy ranks as the least exposed of any state to slowing down in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Only 14.5% of workers in South Dakota are employed in industries that are at high risk of contraction due to efforts to contain the virus, the second smallest share of any state. Since mid-March, only 50,221 workers in the state, or 11.0% of the total labor force, have claimed unemployment — the second smallest share among states.

Perhaps not surprisingly, consumer sentiment remains relatively high in South Dakota. The state’s consumer confidence index stands at 90.4 points — well above the national average of 86.3 points.

Utah is one of the few states that did not issue a statewide stay-at-home order or closure of nonessential businesses, although some municipalities, including Salt Lake County, have issued their own stay-at-home orders. About 165,000 people in the state have filed for unemployment since mid-March, amounting to 10.4% of the labor force — the smallest share of any state.

Infection rates in Utah have also been lower than average. As of June 1, the number of confirmed COVID-19 infections in the state was 316 for every 100,000 people, well below the nationwide rate of 547 per 100,000 people.

The structure of Nebraska’s economy has made the state somewhat less vulnerable to the effects of the pandemic and the measures taken to combat it. The state has relatively low employment in particularly hard-hit industries such as leisure and hospitality and mining. Additionally, to date, Nebraska is one the few states not to issue a statewide stay-at-home order or closure of nonessential businesses.

While its economy has not been hit as hard as many other states, infections have been relatively concentrated in Nebraska. There have been 744 confirmed cases for every 100,000 people in Nebraska as of June 1, well above the 547 cases per 100,000 people nationwide.

Before the U.S. economy went into freefall, the monthly jobless rate in Idaho was 2.5%, well below the 4.4% national unemployment rate. As of April, the state’s unemployment rate remained relatively low at 11.5% — compared to the 14.7% national rate.

The coronavirus itself has not been especially widespread in the state. Idaho had fewer than 3,000 known cases as of COVID-19 as of June 1. After adjusting for its relatively low population, Idaho has one of the lower number of confirmed cases per capita among states.

The April unemployment rate stood at 10.2% in Arkansas — well below the 14.7% national average. The relatively lower jobless rate may explain why state residents are somewhat optimistic about their personal finances and U.S. business conditions as a whole. The consumer confidence index stands at 92.2 in Arkansas, higher than in all but five other states and about 6 points above the national average. Arkansas is one of several states to not impose a statewide stay-at-home order to report more minimal economic fallout relative to most states.