State Economies Most Likely to Be Crippled by COVID-19

Prior to the crisis, Kentucky had one of the highest shares of state employment in industries most vulnerable to the economic effects of the pandemic, including transportation and warehousing. The state has the second highest share of any state of employment in the sector. The state’s roughly 840,000 new unemployment claims since mid-March constitute 41% of the state’s total workforce, the second highest share of any U.S. state.

Like many other densely-populated states in the Northeast, Rhode Island has been hit especially hard by COVID-19, with over 1,400 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents as of June 1, compared to the national figure of 547 per 100,000. The state’s official unemployment rate as of April was 17%, the fourth highest of any state. That figure is likely to rise a great deal in May, as total unemployment filings in the state since mid-March exceeded 30% of the state’s labor force.

The state’s labor department issued a statement on April 29 saying the pandemic will result in $1.1 billion in lost wages for state workers through the second quarter of 2020.

Georgia’s economy is heavily dependent on a number of industries vulnerable to the effects of a COVID-19-driven recession. Some 19.7% of the workforce is employed in industries classified by Moody’s as high-risk to the economic effects of the pandemic, the ninth largest share of any state. And while the physical spread of COVID-19 in Georgia has been mild compared to the nation as a whole, the state has had one of the worst economic fallouts.

Since March 15, 2.2 million Georgia residents have filed for unemployment benefits. This amounts to 42.7% of the labor force, the largest share nationwide. According to the Georgia Department of Labor, some of the hardest-hit industries in the state include trade, educational services, information, administration, waste management, transportation, warehousing, and construction.

Hawaii is more dependent on tourism than nearly any other state — and few industries have suffered more in the wake of the pandemic than tourism. The unemployment rate in Hawaii now stands at a staggering 22.3% — higher than in all but three other states. That rate will only likely climb higher, as, since mid-March, nearly a quarter million Hawaiians have filed for unemployment, equal to more than 36% of the workforce. Hawaii is one of only three states where over a third of the workforce have filed for unemployment in the last few months.

Prior to the pandemic, over one-third of Nevada’s employment was in industries that are at the highest levels of risk from the economic effects of the pandemic. This is about double the national concentration of employment in these industries. The effects of that concentration have been felt statewide as Nevada’s unemployment rate in April reached 28.2%, by far the highest unemployment rate of any state.

On March 17, Gov. Steve Sisolak ordered all casinos in the state to cease operations. In April, the state’s casino revenue fell to just $3 million, more than a 99% decline compared to April 2019. Even as state casinos are slated to open it later in June, it could take months before gaming revenue returns to pre-crisis levels.