State Economies Most Likely to Be Crippled by COVID-19

California was the first state to implement a stay-at-home order, and currently it has some of the strictest coronavirus-related restrictions in the country. While early government actions may have helped stem the spread of the virus — there were 286 confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 as of June 1, less than half the national cases per capita — high unemployment may put the state at risk of a long-term recession.

As of April 2020, 15.5% of the California labor force was unemployed. Some 4.7 million Californians have applied for unemployment since March 15, amounting to 24.0% of the total labor force — the 15th largest share of any state.

In Florida, 14.1% of the workforce is employed in leisure and hospitality — the fourth largest share of any state. The hospitality industry has been suffering because of the pandemic as travel and overall consumer demand have fallen to historic lows. In total, 20.1% of workers in Florida are employed in such high-risk industries, the sixth largest share nationwide.

While unemployment and COVID-19 infection rates in Florida rank toward the middle of all states, Moody’s is projecting a 23.9% drop in state revenue through fiscal 2021. With a small rainy day fund — equivalent to just 4.4% of annual expenditure — Florida might not be able to cover as much as 19.5% of its budget, the fifth largest projected shortfall of any state.

While some 18.0% of the Indiana workforce is employed in high-risk industries — nearly in line with the 17.7% national rate — recent reports show that unemployment has risen more in Indiana in the last few months than in nearly every other state. As of April 2020, 16.9% of the Indiana workforce was unemployed, the fifth highest unemployment rate of any state and nearly five times the April 2019 unemployment rate.

Moody’s projects that Indiana will suffer a 19.1% decline in revenue through 2021. While the state’s rainy day fund will cushion some of the fiscal shock, Indiana is projected to have a budget shortfall of 10.5% in 2021, a larger shortfall than a majority of states.

Prior to the pandemic, almost 20% of Oklahoma’s workforce was in a high-risk industry, one of the higher shares of any state. Notably, the state’s substantial oil sector remains at risk after the plunge of West Texas crude into negative territory in mid-April and as a number of oil and gas operations around the country have announced they could be facing bankruptcy. While oil prices have rebounded somewhat, the long-term economic health of the industry — and the state economy as a whole — remains in doubt. Since mid-March, total unemployment filings in the state have totaled over a quarter of the state’s labor force.

In Delaware, some 17.0% of the workforce is employed in industries considered high risk due to the coronavirus pandemic, about in line with the 17.7% national figure. Similarly, the state’s April unemployment rate of 14.3% is close to the 14.7% national rate.

While, structurally, Delaware is no more likely to suffer a worse COVID-19-driven recession than a majority of states, the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Delaware may hinder economic activity for a longer period than in most of the nation. As of June 1, there were 993 confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 Delaware residents, the sixth highest infection rate of any state. There have been 38 deaths per 100,000 people in Delaware, the 11th highest death rate.