As the NFL season rolls along, the serious contenders for the Super Bowl are starting to emerge after week 4. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look strong, after Tom Brady led his new team to a close win in his old stomping grounds, beating the New England Patriots 19-17. The Arizona Cardinals are the only remaining undefeated team, after trouncing the L.A. Rams 37-20 to move to 4-0.
There is, of course, a lot of football left in the regular season, but some teams are proving that they can play with the best, and could be tough to beat in the playoffs.
To determine how each NFL team will finish the 2021 season, 24/7 Tempo reviewed FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 NFL predictions for how the season will play out, based on 50,000 simulated games, as of September 23, 2021. Supplemental data came from Pro Football Reference.
With 32 teams competing for a shot at the Super Bowl, even the top teams are projected to have just over a 10% chance of winning the title. While it may be too early to say who will win the Super Bowl, we have a good idea of who won’t — the winless Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars have almost no chance of even making the postseason, much less competing for a title.
More than a month into the season, injuries are starting to affect how teams can perform. In week 5’s Thursday night game, Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson left the game with an injured finger, and it is unclear when he will be fit to play again. Teams that have invested in depth by signing quality backups and rotation players will be able to better weather any injuries to their starters, and stand a better chance of making a deep run in the playoffs. These are the teams paying their players the most and the least.
Click here to see how each NFL team will finish this season.
Source: Quinn Harris / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
32. Detroit Lions
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 1%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 5-11
[in-text-ad]
Source: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
31. Houston Texans
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 6%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
24/7 Wall St.
Source: James Gilbert / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
> Projected record: 4-13
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 3%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 1-15
Source: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
29. New York Jets
> Projected record: 5-12
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 5%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: <0.1%
> 2020 record: 2-14
[in-text-ad-2]
Source: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
28. Atlanta Falcons
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 7%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.1%
> 2020 record: 4-12
Source: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 9%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 12-4
[in-text-ad]
Source: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
26. Miami Dolphins
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 16%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.2%
> 2020 record: 10-6
Source: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
25. Chicago Bears
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 17%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 8-8
Source: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
24. New York Giants
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 12%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 6-10
[in-text-ad-2]
Source: Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
23. Philadelphia Eagles
> Projected record: 6-11
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 15%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.3%
> 2020 record: 4-11
Source: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
22. New England Patriots
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 23%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 7-9
[in-text-ad]
Source: Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
21. Washington Football Team
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 25%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.7%
> 2020 record: 7-9
Source: Justin Casterline / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
20. Indianapolis Colts
> Projected record: 8-9
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 42%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.8%
> 2020 record: 11-5
Source: Norm Hall / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
19. Minnesota Vikings
> Projected record: 7-10
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 27%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 0.9%
> 2020 record: 7-9
[in-text-ad-2]
Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
18. Cincinnati Bengals
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 40%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 4-11
Source: Justin Casterline / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
17. Seattle Seahawks
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 38%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 1%
> 2020 record: 12-4
[in-text-ad]
Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
16. Tennessee Titans
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 64%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 11-5
24/7 Wall St.
Source: Grant Halverson / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
15. Carolina Panthers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 49%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 5-11
Source: Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
14. Las Vegas Raiders
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 48%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 8-8
[in-text-ad-2]
Source: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
13. San Francisco 49ers
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 43%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 6-10
Source: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
12. Denver Broncos
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 50%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 5-11
[in-text-ad]
Source: Chris Graythen / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
11. New Orleans Saints
> Projected record: 9-8
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 46%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 2%
> 2020 record: 12-4
24/7 Wall St.
Source: Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
10. Green Bay Packers
> Projected record: 10-7
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 78%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 13-3
Source: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
9. Dallas Cowboys
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 78%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 6-10
[in-text-ad-2]
Source: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
8. Cleveland Browns
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 71%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 5%
> 2020 record: 11-5
Source: Rob Carr / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
7. Los Angeles Chargers
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 76%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 7%
> 2020 record: 7-9
[in-text-ad]
Source: Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
6. Baltimore Ravens
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 82%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 8%
> 2020 record: 11-5
Source: Jamie Squire / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
5. Kansas City Chiefs
> Projected record: 11-6
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 74%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 14-2
Source: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
4. Arizona Cardinals
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 88%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 9%
> 2020 record: 8-8
[in-text-ad-2]
Source: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
3. Los Angeles Rams
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 88%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 10%
> 2020 record: 10-6
Source: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
2. Buffalo Bills
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 91%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 11%
> 2020 record: 13-3
[in-text-ad]
Source: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images Sport via Getty Images
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
> Projected record: 12-5
> Pct. chance to make playoffs: 89%
> Pct. chance to win Super Bowl: 13%
> 2020 record: 11-5
Take This Retirement Quiz To Get Matched With An Advisor Now (Sponsored)
Are you ready for retirement? Planning for retirement can be overwhelming, that’s why it could be a good idea to speak to a fiduciary financial advisor about your goals today.
Start by taking this retirement quiz right here from SmartAsset that will match you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area and beyond in 5 minutes. Smart Asset is now matching over 50,000 people a month.
Click here now to get started.
Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.
Editors' Picks
