24/7 Wall St. Insights
- 59 countries forecast to experience population decline from 2025 to 2050.
- 90 countries are projected to shrink from 2025 to 2100.
- The fastest-shrinking countries are in Eastern Europe, where birth rates are falling and outbound migration is rising.
- Many small island nations are also shrinking at an alarming rate.
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While most of the world is worried about explosive growth and overpopulation, a number of fast-shrinking countries are fretting about population decline. Aging populations, low fertility rates, and outbound migration flows are contributing to population decline in countries throughout the developed and developing world, with some nations forecast to lose more than half of their populations by century’s end.
Worldwide, 30 countries experienced population decline from 2000 to 2025. Some 59 countries are forecast to experience population decline from 2025 to 2050, while 90 countries are projected to shrink from 2025 to 2100. Many of the fastest-shrinking countries are in Eastern Europe, where outbound migration is rising and birth rates are falling. Many small island nations, such as Cook Islands, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, and Micronesia, are also losing population at an unsustainable pace. Some Asian nations that experienced rapid population growth in the late 20th century, such as Japan and South Korea, are shrinking too. A closer look at the data reveals the countries running out of people.
To determine the countries running out of people, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data on population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Database. Countries were ranked based on projected population change from 2025 to 2050. Only countries with fertility rates below the 2.1-births-per-female average replacement for developed nations were included.
25. China
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -8.7% (-122.7 million people)
- Current population, 2025: 1.4 billion
- Population forecast, 2050: 1.3 billion
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.2 births per female
24. Greece
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -8.8% (-920,364 people)
- Current population, 2025: 10.4 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 9.5 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.4 births per female
23. Hungary
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -9.1% (-895,390 people)
- Current population, 2025: 9.8 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 8.9 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.6 births per female
22. Belarus
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -10.7% (-1.0 million people)
- Current population, 2025: 9.5 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 8.4 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female
21. Russia
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -10.8% (-15.2 million people)
- Current population, 2025: 140.1 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 125.0 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female
20. Dominica
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -11.0% (-8,199 people)
- Current population, 2025: 74,642
- Population forecast, 2050: 66,443
- Fertility rate, 2025: 2.0 births per female
19. South Korea
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -11.3% (-5.8 million people)
- Current population, 2025: 51.5 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 45.7 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 0.7 births per female
18. Estonia
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -11.7% (-156,770 people)
- Current population, 2025: 1.3 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 1.2 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.4 births per female
17. Japan
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -13.5% (-16.5 million people)
- Current population, 2025: 122.7 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 106.2 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.4 births per female
16. Romania
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -13.5% (-2.4 million people)
- Current population, 2025: 18.0 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 15.6 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.6 births per female
15. Serbia
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -13.9% (-919,530 people)
- Current population, 2025: 6.6 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 5.7 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female
14. Poland
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -14.2% (-5.5 million people)
- Current population, 2025: 38.4 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 32.9 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.3 births per female
13. Bulgaria
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -14.8% (-997,030 people)
- Current population, 2025: 6.7 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 5.7 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female
12. Moldova
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -14.8% (-529,703 people)
- Current population, 2025: 3.6 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 3.0 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.3 births per female
11. Armenia
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -14.9% (-442,690 people)
- Current population, 2025: 3.0 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 2.5 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.7 births per female
10. Ukraine
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -15.3% (-5.6 million people)
- Current population, 2025: 36.5 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 30.9 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.2 births per female
9. Croatia
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -16.0% (-651,561 people)
- Current population, 2025: 4.1 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 3.4 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.4 births per female
8. Montenegro
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -17.2% (-102,629 people)
- Current population, 2025: 597,174
- Population forecast, 2050: 494,545
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.8 births per female
7. Cuba
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -20.5% (-2.1 million people)
- Current population, 2025: 10.1 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 8.0 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female
6. Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -21.4% (-780,881 people)
- Current population, 2025: 3.7 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 2.9 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.1 births per female
5. Lithuania
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -23.8% (-669,489 people)
- Current population, 2025: 2.8 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 2.1 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.2 births per female
4. Albania
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -23.9% (-610,970 people)
- Current population, 2025: 2.6 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 1.9 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.1 births per female
3. Latvia
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -24.5% (-462,903 people)
- Current population, 2025: 1.9 million
- Population forecast, 2050: 1.4 million
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.3 births per female
2. Saint Pierre and Miquelon
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -27.3% (-1,385 people)
- Current population, 2025: 5,070
- Population forecast, 2050: 3,685
- Fertility rate, 2025: 1.6 births per female
1. Cook Islands
- Population projection, 2025-2050: -29.0% (-2,200 people)
- Current population, 2025: 7,592
- Population forecast, 2050: 5,392
- Fertility rate, 2025: 2.0 births per female
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