Each year, millions of Americans pack up and move to a new state – either for a job, family reasons, a change of climate, or any number of other reasons. Migration and natural population change resulting from births and deaths can cause significant demographic shifts, which have consequences for local economies and governments.
Negative or slow population growth can lead to weaker economic growth and fewer economic opportunities – which in turn can push more people out of a given state. Population decline can also mean reduced revenue for state governments and limited funding for public works and services and reduced ability to meet budgetary obligations. Here is a look at the states collecting the most in income tax.
According to a study conducted by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, Arizona’s population is projected to expand by 26.1% between 2020 and 2040 – an increase of 1,897,585 people. If the Cooper Center’s projections bear out, Arizona’s ranking as the 14th most populous state will remain unchanged, also taking into account population changes in other states.
The projected change is in keeping with the trend of the last decade. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of people living in Arizona climbed by 13.7%, or 876,677 people.
A full methodological explanation for how these projections were calculated can be found here.
| Rank | Name | Projected 2020 to 2040 pop. change (%) | 2020 population | 2020 rank | 2040 projected population | 2040 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | 35.2 | 29,604,099 | 2 | 40,015,913 | 2 |
| 2 | North Dakota | 34.3 | 789,403 | 47 | 1,060,457 | 45 |
| 3 | Utah | 34.1 | 3,240,569 | 30 | 4,344,339 | 29 |
| 4 | Florida | 32.0 | 21,877,257 | 3 | 28,886,983 | 3 |
| 5 | Colorado | 31.7 | 5,843,359 | 20 | 7,692,907 | 17 |
| 6 | Nevada | 30.1 | 3,119,265 | 32 | 4,058,371 | 30 |
| 7 | Washington | 27.3 | 7,681,818 | 13 | 9,776,126 | 12 |
| 8 | Arizona | 26.1 | 7,268,694 | 14 | 9,166,279 | 14 |
| 9 | Idaho | 25.4 | 1,777,249 | 39 | 2,227,842 | 36 |
| 10 | South Carolina | 22.5 | 5,184,564 | 23 | 6,352,502 | 22 |
| 11 | Oregon | 21.0 | 4,267,534 | 27 | 5,164,041 | 24 |
| 12 | North Carolina | 19.8 | 10,568,033 | 9 | 12,658,927 | 7 |
| 13 | Georgia | 19.5 | 10,725,351 | 8 | 12,820,271 | 5 |
| 14 | Delaware | 17.9 | 987,393 | 45 | 1,164,344 | 44 |
| 15 | South Dakota | 17.0 | 891,688 | 46 | 1,043,032 | 47 |
| 16 | Montana | 15.0 | 1,074,635 | 43 | 1,236,304 | 43 |
| 17 | California | 14.9 | 40,438,640 | 1 | 46,467,001 | 1 |
| 18 | Virginia | 14.1 | 8,655,021 | 12 | 9,876,728 | 11 |
| 19 | Tennessee | 14.0 | 6,861,856 | 16 | 7,823,662 | 15 |
| 20 | Minnesota | 12.0 | 5,683,666 | 22 | 6,364,886 | 20 |
| 21 | Nebraska | 12.0 | 1,956,876 | 37 | 2,190,918 | 37 |
| 22 | Hawaii | 11.4 | 1,453,902 | 40 | 1,619,703 | 40 |
| 23 | Maryland | 11.1 | 6,161,345 | 19 | 6,842,902 | 19 |
| 24 | Oklahoma | 10.9 | 4,001,180 | 28 | 4,439,038 | 28 |
| 25 | Massachusetts | 10.9 | 6,982,092 | 15 | 7,742,628 | 16 |
| 26 | Alaska | 9.1 | 751,328 | 48 | 819,954 | 48 |
| 27 | Louisiana | 6.7 | 4,742,900 | 25 | 5,062,780 | 25 |
| 28 | Iowa | 6.5 | 3,184,240 | 31 | 3,392,783 | 32 |
| 29 | Arkansas | 5.9 | 3,038,491 | 33 | 3,217,535 | 33 |
| 30 | Indiana | 5.3 | 6,737,581 | 17 | 7,095,000 | 18 |
| 31 | Wyoming | 5.2 | 585,380 | 50 | 615,787 | 49 |
| 32 | Kentucky | 4.8 | 4,498,533 | 26 | 4,714,761 | 27 |
| 33 | New York | 4.2 | 20,031,150 | 4 | 20,873,488 | 4 |
| 34 | New Jersey | 4.2 | 9,088,074 | 11 | 9,470,012 | 13 |
| 35 | Kansas | 3.3 | 2,936,212 | 35 | 3,032,653 | 34 |
| 36 | Missouri | 3.2 | 6,161,471 | 18 | 6,359,970 | 21 |
| 37 | New Hampshire | 3.0 | 1,352,917 | 41 | 1,393,451 | 41 |
| 38 | Alabama | 3.0 | 4,911,278 | 24 | 5,056,796 | 26 |
| 39 | Wisconsin | 2.7 | 5,837,176 | 21 | 5,997,137 | 23 |
| 40 | New Mexico | 1.3 | 2,099,134 | 36 | 2,127,318 | 38 |
| 41 | Ohio | 0.4 | 11,705,262 | 7 | 11,751,540 | 9 |
| 42 | Pennsylvania | -0.3 | 12,844,885 | 5 | 12,809,150 | 6 |
| 43 | Michigan | -0.3 | 9,992,315 | 10 | 9,960,115 | 10 |
| 44 | Rhode Island | -0.7 | 1,062,334 | 44 | 1,055,318 | 46 |
| 45 | Maine | -0.9 | 1,338,780 | 42 | 1,326,159 | 42 |
| 46 | Mississippi | -0.9 | 2,990,498 | 34 | 2,962,160 | 35 |
| 47 | Connecticut | -1.4 | 3,593,542 | 29 | 3,542,707 | 31 |
| 48 | Illinois | -3.1 | 12,791,188 | 6 | 12,397,564 | 8 |
| 49 | Vermont | -3.4 | 622,868 | 49 | 601,865 | 50 |
| 50 | West Virginia | -7.8 | 1,801,966 | 38 | 1,661,849 | 39 |
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