Total Reset on Infoblox -- All Support Is Lost

Infoblox Inc. (NYSE: BLOX) is getting slaughtered after its earnings report. The network automation firm posted a surprise sequential revenue drop due to weak ordering trends. A weak January was augmented by weak federal orders.

What is so interesting here is that the revenue range is now $60 million to $61 million, down from the $65 million to $66 million previously offered. Earnings are now put in a range of $0.10 to $0.12 per share, up from a prior range of $0.09 to $0.11.

For the full year, Infoblox put revenue in a range of $250 million to $254 million, from a prior $270 million to $276 million range. The earnings range was lowered to $0.30 to $0.34 per share, versus a prior $0.44 to $0.54 per share. We showed the consensus closer to $275 million in revenue and $0.51 in earnings per share.

What has taken place here is a total reset of expectations. Infoblox shares lost one-quarter of their value after a poor outlook given back in November. This is a further disappointment, even if some think that the bar is being set very low.

We have at least three analyst downgrades on Infoblox as a result. Sterne Agee cut the rating to Neutral from Buy and slashed the price target to $20 from $47. Needham also downgraded Infoblox to Hold from Buy, and Wedbush downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform.

The prior consensus price target was $43.00, but that was before. Infoblox shares were down 48% at $17.22 Tuesday morning, after closing at $33.14 on Monday. The new 52-week range is $17.11 to $48.97. Another flag here is that the 13 million shares seen trading in almost an hour of trading is close to 12 times a normal day’s trading volume. Keep in mind that Infoblox came public less than two years ago.

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