Why One Top Analyst Sees Nvidia Sell-Off Way Overdone With Big Upside Ahead

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Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) has seen its shares tumble over the past two months and, now that everything seems to be settling down, one brokerage firm thinks that this stock could be a winner going forward.

Credit Suisse initiated coverage of the company with an Outperform rating and a $225 price target. The firm points out that while the recent fiscal fourth-quarter guidance was disappointing, it sees the reset and 50% decline in shares over the past eight weeks as providing an extremely compelling entry point.

The firm highlighted a few reasons for its positive thesis:

  1. Despite above-Street estimates, we model Gaming (53% Rev) declining y/y for the next 4 Qs, -31%, -26%, -23%, and -11% respectively, more than capturing excess inventory/crypto demise,
  2. Our “stress-test” FY20 EPS is still greater than $7.00, implying solid valuation support at $140 or 20x,
  3. We see continued strength in Data Center (26% Rev) with ML/AI – the structural thesis remains intact.
  4. And Pro-Visualization (9.5% Rev) is poised to enjoy accelerating growth with the launch of Turing-based Quadro RTX cards. Despite the near-term setback, we continue to see an at least 15% CAGR overall and a 30% CAGR for Data Center.

Credit Suisse’s analysis also suggests that Nvidia could be significantly underestimating the artificial intelligence opportunity. Core to its view is the recognition that AI is the first technology to systematically lower the cost of analytics, leading to significant elasticity of use cases as costs decline.

If everything goes especially well, Credit Suisse has its blue sky scenario with a $300 price target:

In the blue sky scenario, NVDA sees a full materialization of its forecasted Datacenter and Autonomous vehicle total addressable markets (TAMs) of $50bn and $60bn, respectively, and NVDA maintains positions of leadership of in both. Moreover, in this scenario, NVDA sees a successful launch of its Volta gaming chips, and sees continued positive secular trends in the Gaming industry. This will drive EPS of $12 in FY2021, and the stock can be worth in $300 at a 25x P/E.

On the other hand, if the stock faces some difficulty, the firm’s grey sky scenario has a $140 price target and says:

In the grey sky scenario, NVDA sees increased competition from companies like INTC and AMD in the datacenter space, while internally-developed ASICs take market share as well. Also in this scenario, the proliferation of autonomous vehicles (AV) are delayed, as a result of increased regulation and other factors. Finally, AMD regains significant market share of the PC Gaming industry. This will drive EPS of $7 in FY2021, and the stock can be worth $140 at a 20x P/E.

Shares of Nvidia were last seen up nearly 3% at $148.82 on Monday, in a 52-week range of $133.31 to $292.76. The consensus analyst price target is $233.09.