The tornado funnel of civilizations, the S-curve of technologies
Nothing lasts forever, but things last shorter now.
Two tweets from Asymco‘s Horace Dediu can cover a lot of ground.
Having a quick look at the lifespans of civilizations/dynasties/empires (last 5000 years). pic.twitter.com/D4uHGZvSV0
— Horace Dediu (@asymco) March 5, 2019
https://t.co/pPT5ct5yaw cross-checked and error corrected with Wikipedia. Contrasting with technology lifespans which are only on a 200 year scale. pic.twitter.com/dOaxcOHg7I
— Horace Dediu (@asymco) March 5, 2019
To read details, click on a tweet and blow up its chart. For a couple of benchmarks, USA is eight from the bottom in the top (civilizations) chart and iPhone (well, smartphone) is seven from the top in the bottom (technologies) chart.
My take: Nothing lasts forever, but things last shorter now.
See also:
- Horace Dediu’s unified theory of Apple (audio)
- Benedict Evans has seen the future and it’s an S curve (video)
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