RIM (RIMM) Warning Bad For Apple (AAPL)

RIM (RIMM) warned it would not make its numbers for the current quarter. Some of that is due to the value of the dollar. The balance is because a weak economy is hurting demand for its Blackberry products.

RIMM said revenue for fiscal Q3 would be $2.75-$2.78 billion. Preliminary revenue is lower than its previously forecast of $2.95-$3.10 billion.

RIMM said it would add 2.6 million new subscribers in the period, down from a previous forecast of 2.9 million.

That news is probably not good for Apple (AAPL) and its new 3G iPhone.

Analysts are already revising estimates for sales of the super-phone Oppenheimer has cut its forecast to 4.8 million from 7.5 million. JP Morgan has taken its number down to 7.1 million. Look at the spread of estimates and it shows that no one seems to have a reasonable picture of how the device will do.

An evaluation of the new quarterly estimates from Palm (PALM), RIM, and Nokia (NOK) would support the notion that the iPhone, despite its tremendous appeal, will do badly and that Apple’s stock is ready for another big letdown.

Apple’s stock is already off from a 52-week high of nearly $203 to $92.47. But, analysts still expect EPS to be a relatively strong $1.43 a share. A big miss on iPhone sales could drop that by $.10 or more.

The miracle at Apple may be coming to an end, not because its products have lost their luster but because it appears no one is immune from a deepening recession.

Douglas A. McIntyre