New Dual Hurricane & Tropical Storm Threats Going Into Labor Day Weekend

Sometimes it is hard to know whether or not the weather reports are meant to scare or inform.  The media has already been accused of over-hyping the hurricane news and Don Henley’s “Dirty Laundry” comes to mind more often than not.  The problem is that even after being skeptical, there are two current threats ahead of and after Labor Day.  The larger threat seems to be Tropical Storm Katia out in the Atlantic, but that would not be a threat to the Continental United States until well into next week.  There is another developing threat much closer to home today.  What would be become storm system “L” (named Lee if it develops into a tropical storm or hurricane) is getting mixed coverage ahead of Labor Day weekend.

Some reports have Tropical Storm Katia already becoming a hurricane, and now the National Hurricane Center is saying that the storm could develop into a hurricane as soon as today. The most recent nautical measurement shows 55 Knots or 65 MPH as the maximum sustained winds.  This was much lower yesterday and the winds have to reach 64 knots (up to 82 knots) to be a Category 1 hurricane (74 to 95 MPH) on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale.  The current movement is in West-Northwest direction at 18 knots or 21 MPH.

We do not want to hype the news nor to create any panic because that is not our goal.  The problem is that if this storm just goes in a straight line and does not deviate at all, then Katia could challenge some of the same areas on the Eastern Seaboard that Hurricane Irene hit.  This storm could be another challenge for homeowners, insurance companies, tourism, and other business.  It can unfortunately result in the loss of life.

Weather.com noted, “We have many, many days to monitor this one (Katia) and it is too early to determine if it will ever affect any land areas.”  The NOAA satellite map shows a projected path that would only put it well north of the outer Caribbean ring by 8:00 AM Monday.

Weather.com notes on the tropical wave that could become Lee… “Closer to the U.S., we have a more immediate concern. Depicted in the graphic below over the northwest Caribbean is a tropical disturbance with collocated shower and thunderstorm activity. Numerous computer models forecast that this system could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later this week as it makes a move towards the western Gulf of Mexico.”

It’s too early to say what impacts this system may have, but residents and those with plans along the Gulf Coast late this week into the Labor Day weekend should monitor the situation closely, particularly in Texas and Louisiana.”

The difference in this (would-be Lee) system is that the National Hurricane Center is giving a much lower ranking of this.  It notes, “A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.”

We’ll be watching both systems closely, and we won’t be hyping nor sensationalizing these reports like so many others are have done and will do.  The ghosts of Katrina are just too powerful, and it means more eyeballs watching news.  Here is a list of go-to companies we will be watching if there is a real threat to the Eastern Seaboard all over again. The storm names that could come in 2011 after Katia are Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney.

JON C. OGG

Here is the current path of Katia and a larger full map of the larger Atlantic and Caribbean is below: