The new iWatch is supposed to be everything the iPad and new versions of the iPhone have not been. It is supposed to transform the consumer electronics industry the way the early iPhone did seven years ago. The challenge, which is one Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) cannot overcome, is that the iWatch may not be a mainstream product that can sell 250 million units a year. And without that level of success, Apple’s shares are likely to plunge from their current price of $90 toward $60 as they did in spring of 2013 after weak earnings.

The iWatch has been described as a wearable device with 10 sensors and the means to track the user’s health and fitness, probably moment by moment, according to The Wall Street Journal. However, the health market, no matter how huge, is small compared to the one for smartphones. Even if the iWatch does much more than act as a health monitoring device, how can it match smartphones that run scores of apps, are multimedia devices and, by the way, can be used as phones and a means to surf the Web? Among other things, a smart watch screen may be too small to make these functions viable.

It is screen size and processing power that are the shortcomings of any wrist-worn, dumbed-down versions of the most powerful smartphones. That makes wearables closer to toys than real consumer electronics devices. And as the smartphone segment is too crowded for more than two successful companies — Apple and Samsung — the wearable market will have a flood of products within the next year, as companies try to launch products ahead of Apple, or ones with equally attractive features.

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The other catalyst for a sharp improvement in Apple’s stock price is the iPhone 6, which is expected to be in the market later this year. The most recent versions of the iPhone have not been enough of a revolution from early models to impress Wall Street. And consumers may well be tired of incremental improvements in the iPhone as well. The argument that Apple does not have a product that can revive the company’s reputation is much more likely accurate than not. What products can imaginably be an unexpected leap in technology and features?

The iWatch may change the way people use consumer electronics. However, that is unlikely. The package is too small to allow it to contain great things.

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