Cars and Drivers

Why One Analyst Sees 70% Upside for Tesla Shareholders

Jon C. Ogg

Published: October 9, 2018 10:50 am

Last Updated: January 11, 2020 4:42 pm

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged higher on Tuesday, October 9, despite the broader market indexes showing a mixed performance after the opening bell. The driving force was a very bullish analyst call from Wall Street.

Shares of Tesla were initiated in new coverage at Macquarie, with the firm issuing an Outperform rating and assigning a $430 price target. If those targets come to fruition, that represents just over 70% in implied upside from Tesla’s $250.56 closing price on Monday.

There has been more than enough negative news around Tesla and Elon Musk’s tweeting behavior and antics. The recent settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission was pushed to the side after Musk’s taunting tweets calling the SEC the “Shortseller Enrichment Commission.”

Macquarie remains unphased by the comments. Several key points were noted in the report from analyst Maynard Um.

First is that Tesla looks uniquely positioned to lead in the ecosystem of platforms. Second is that the auto industry appears to be on the precipice of transformation that will last multiple decades.

Another issue is that the potential industry winners will be those who are the disruptors along the way. Another positive Um sees is Tesla having a deep lead in the race in electric cars.

There was even a note about Tesla having enough levers to fund its debt to maturity, particularly if the stock gets back up to $360 by March of 2019. The report cited that an equity raise would be beneficial to further strengthen its outlook, despite Musk’s prior comments that no more funding was needed.

Perhaps most important of all forecasts in the report, Maynard Um even calls for Tesla to be profitable in the second half of the 2018 year before the subsidies.

Tesla shares were last seen trading up over 5% at $264.00 after about an hour of trading on Tuesday. Its 52-week range is $244.59 to $387.46.

Tesla’s performance has been rather choppy around the production goals, Musk’s claims of “funding secured” and the SEC settlement process. The stock was down 35% from its highs and down almost 20% so far in 2018.

Some analysts are willing to stand against the grain, and the $430 price target from Macquarie on Tuesday was more than $100 above the consensus Thomson Reuters sell-side target of $314.52.

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