This Is the County In the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area Where COVID-19 Is Growing the Fastest

After adding over 637,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 44.3 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 710,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise, albeit at a slowing rate. In the past week, there were an average of 28.1 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — a decrease from the week prior, when there were an average of 33.4 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH, metro area consists of Middlesex County, Suffolk County, Essex County, and four other counties. In the past week, there were an average of 15.5 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Boston residents, less than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there was an average of 19.2 daily new cases per 100,000 Boston residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Boston-Cambridge-Newton metro area, COVID-19 is growing the fastest in Strafford County, New Hampshire. There were an average of 29.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Strafford County during the past week, the most of the seven counties in Boston with available data.

Case growth in the Boston metro area varies at the county level. In Norfolk County, for example, there were an average of 11.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the least of any county in Boston and more than the case growth rate in Strafford County.

While Strafford County is driving the growth of COVID-19 in the Boston area, it does not have the highest incidence of cases overall. As of October 14, there were a total of 9,788.3 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Strafford County, the fifth most of the seven counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 13,646.9 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Strafford County, unemployment peaked at 16.4% in April 2020. As of June 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 3.0%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the fastest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending October 14. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data up from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Massachusetts where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).